TPW Advisory

The early demise of SVB & CS might act as a firebreak to fears Central Banks may over tighten & crush the entire economy. Away from banking other segments of the US Econ are acting better: housing has bottomed, supply chains have unsnarled. Bears mus...

Much like the weather, much like the old proverb, cross asset markets are swinging widely - I use my BTV notes as Musing. CS has long been EU's sick bank - its woes are not systemic; nor are ZIRP winners in US. CBs can both walk & chew gum. Fed raisi...

Just as one was getting sick of the never ending inflation saga, here comes SVB's implosion like a hurricane. We see it as more akin to last Fall's UK LDI mini crisis than a systemic worry; note that KRE RSI is at 17, XLF's is 24. BTE jobs data + Fe...

As our LT outlook unfolds we want to do 2 things: avoid being shaken out by ST gyrations &maintain conviction in the fog. Huge change is underway: from end of most aggressive rate cycle in 40 yrs to the return of US Industrial Policy & on. This new p...

Global cross asset market action reminds one of driving in the fog: stop - go traffic, speed up, slow down, leave room. Slow down, speed up defines Dec - Jan mkt action while foggy weather defines February as markets discount higher rates. We focus o...

We have covered the recent cross asset volatility & rapid fire narrative shifts in much of our writing since last Fall. One can trade or ride through normal digestive periods like the present; we choose the latter. We have a POV: no recession, a desy...