Tellimer Research

US-Africa Leaders Summit on 13-15 December confirms greater effort to charm Africa under Biden than Trump. Since the inaugural 2014 summit, financial pledges for Africa from China are over 4x those from the US. FDI into most larger Africa economies i...

Central bank increased its policy rate by 25bps as expected to 7.5%, its 17th consecutive rate increase. It brings the cumulative increase to date to 725bps since the bank's post-Covid tightening cycle began in August 2021. Forward guidance is unchan...

Food prices down 15% and crude oil down 40% since March 2022 Russia-Ukraine War peak: small relief for importers. Conditions for importers are still difficult with ytd average food and oil prices 15% and 40% higher than full year 2021. Food and fuel....

Government buys back US$82mn of bonds in its second tender offer. Of this, US$63mn was in the 2023s (just 9.4% of the total outstanding) and US$19mn was in the 2025s (5% of outstanding). Default concerns will persist as expected as small operation do...

Castillo attempts to suspend congress, rule by decree and reform judiciary. Instead, he was impeached, arrested and succeeded by vice president Boluarte. Peru’s congress remains highly fragmented, inhibiting market-friendly reform as well a leftist l...

Sentiment towards EM has seemingly turned on expectations of a Fed pivot, with a strong November after two brutal years. The rally could be premature but, if it plays out as expected (lower yields, weaker USD), EM may enjoy a virtuous circle. We also...