Banorte

In the US, attention on the FOMC’s minutes, May’s Empire Manufacturing, Philly Fed and PMI manufacturing. In the Eurozone, 1Q21 GDP and April’s inflation, Euro-area finance ministers and central bankers meeting. In Mexico, we expect March’s retail sa...

We anticipate a 1.8% y/y expansion from -6.3% in the previous month. This would be its first positive print since February 2020, influenced by the start of the pandemic exactly one year before, which distorts annual figures heavily. We recall that Fe...

Banxico keeps the rate unchanged at 4.00%. In addition, it was unanimous. In line with our view, the tone of the statement was more hawkish relative to the previous one, given increased cautiousness on inflation and a better outlook for growth. In th...

This positive surprise would imply a revision of around +10bps to 1Q21 GDP, towards -3.7% y/y. Industry rose 0.7% m/m (Chart 3), its tenth consecutive monthly recovery and above the 0.3% seen in February, which in turn was a positive surprise. Despit...

Consumption backtracked 0.2% m/m, with all categories down except domestic services, while imported goods were weakest at -1.8%. Nevertheless, using seasonally adjusted figures, investment rose 2.4% m/m, very positive considering the strong 3.9% expa...

Banxico’s monetary policy decision (May 13th). It is our take that the central bank will show a relatively hawkish tone, especially because of price dynamics. Sequential data becomes more important to isolate for this, forecasting a whopping 3.1% m/m...