Banorte

October’s trade balance posted a US$6,223.8mn surplus, a new historical high and surpassing all expectations. In the details, exports (4.8% m/m) gained additional momentum, while imports (1.3%) decelerated marginally. Given sizable differences betwee...

Gross Domestic Product (3Q20 F, nsa): -8.6% y/y; Banorte: -8.7%; consensus: -8.6%; preliminary: -8.6%. We highlight the +20bps revision to services to 8.8% q/q, helped strongly by the reopening, among other factors. We maintain our -9.0% y/y estimate...

Banxico published today its 3Q20 Quarterly Report (QR). As anticipated in the last statement, the monetary authority revised its inflation forecasts mostly to the upside. Hence, there is no convergence to 3% in headline inflation during the forecast...

Retail sales stood at -7.1% a/a, better than expectations and aided by an improvement in epidemiological conditions. In monthly terms they advanced 2.7%, with increases in sectors related to higher mobility, such as clothing and leisure. Going forwar...

Unemployment rate (October; nsa): 4.70%; Banorte: 5.03%; consensus: 5.00%; previous: 5.09%. In our view, today’s report was very positive, especially considering the deterioration in epidemiological conditions. We expect job gains to continue, albeit...

Inflation surprised to the downside at 0.04% 2w/2w, driven by discounts from Mexico’s Black Friday, gasoline and fruits. With this, the headline index stood at 3.43% y/y, below the 4.09% in October and back within Banxico’s target range. Attention wi...