Alfa
Alfa

Alfa

Coverage: Russia
Alfa distributes industry-leading, independent research produced by the Alfa Bank research team, specialising in Russia and the CIS countries. It is prominent in the Russian Equity and Fixed Income markets, including in the DR and Eurobond markets.
Location: Moscow
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Latest articles from Alfa

Russia: Assessing the "E" in metals & mining ESG — Risks and opportunities

The investment community is becoming increasingly aware of the risks and opportunities related to carbon intensive businesses, which is gradually transitioning to new production methods and incorporating a wider set of considerations to comply with e...
Alfa Boris Krasnozhenov
Boris Krasnozhenov @ Alfa 23 December 2020
Eco-Warrior: Assessing the "E" in Russian metals & mining ESG
Eco-Warrior: Assessing the "E" in Russian metals & mining ESG

Russian ruble exchange rate: Cautious view on Q1 21

Recent ruble appreciated driven by oil price recovery, but persisting sanction risk premium is a negative sign: The ruble was under strong pressure in August-October 2020 as the geopolitical risk-premium was on the rise ahead of US elections. At the...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 21 December 2020
Alfa Macro Insights: Russian ruble exchange rate – Cautious view on 1Q 21
Alfa Macro Insights: Russian ruble exchange rate – Cautious view on 1Q 21

Russia central bank keeps rate on hold; hawkish wording

CBR stayed on hold at 4.25%, but continues to tighten the wording of the release: The CBR kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% today in line with the market consensus. Annual food price inflation has thus jumped to 5.8% y/y. The tighter wordin...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 18 December 2020
Russia central bank: Hawkish wording, but 2021 inflation forecast remains biased
Russia central bank: Hawkish wording, but 2021 inflation forecast remains biased

Russia: Supply disruption risks now on the agenda

Rosstat reported that 3Q20 GDP contracted 3.4% y/y (9M20 GDP -3.4% y/y), supportive of our 3.8-4.0% y/y 2020 GDP contraction forecast: Following the initial estimate on 12 November that 3Q20 GDP contracted 3.6% y/y, Rosstat has now upgraded it slight...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 16 December 2020
Alfa Macro Insights: Russia — Supply disruption risks come to the agenda
Alfa Macro Insights: Russia — Supply disruption risks come to the agenda

US benchmark steel price reaches $825/t — Positive

Steel prices have continued to rally and have reached $825/t of HRC (short-ton, US benchmark) in the US. The price benchmark also touched $880/t level in 2011, when the commodity market was booming on the Chinese recovery. The consumption ratio is ab...
Alfa Boris Krasnozhenov
Boris Krasnozhenov @ Alfa 8 December 2020

Russia 2021 macro outlook: Three key topics set the landscape

2021 is expected to be a year of economic recovery even if the recovery path is subject to substantial uncertainty. The second is that part of the unemployment rate increase could be structural and we are cautious on a potential real disposable incom...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 2 December 2020
Russia 2021 macro outlook: Three key topics set the landscape
Russia 2021 macro outlook: Three key topics set the landscape