Global

Zambia: Botched budget a bad signal for bonds; downgrade from Buy to Sell

  • 2020 budget deficit to widen to 11.7% of GDP versus initial 5.5% target, with limited consolidation to 9.3% in 2021

  • Austerity clearly not on agenda ahead of 2021 elections, squashing hopes for IMF program and smooth restructuring

  • We revise our recommendation from Buy to Sell on Zambia 24s, with more onerous restructuring now likely required

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September 25th, 2020
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").

The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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