Zambia: Botched budget a bad signal for bonds; downgrade from Buy to Sell

  • 2020 budget deficit to widen to 11.7% of GDP versus initial 5.5% target, with limited consolidation to 9.3% in 2021

  • Austerity clearly not on agenda ahead of 2021 elections, squashing hopes for IMF program and smooth restructuring

  • We revise our recommendation from Buy to Sell on Zambia 24s, with more onerous restructuring now likely required
September 25th, 2020
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