We believe that the Thai chicken up-cycle is likely to last through YE22 (the base-case scenario) or through 2023 (the best-case scenario) assuming the tight breeding chicken supply persists into YE22 or 2023. We expect a robust jump YoY in live chicken and domestic chicken byproduct prices in 3Q22 and a YoY 2H22 earnings turnaround for both GFPT and GFN. Its valuation is cheap again—2022 PER of 11.8x against its up-cycle PER of 20x.
Equity Analysis /Thailand
GFPT PCL: YoY turnaround in 2H22; attractively cheap valuation
Breeding chicken stock shortage at least through YE22
Robust jump of live chicken and chicken bone prices in 3Q22
Chicken export volume to resume a QoQ rise in 3Q22
30 August 2022