Equity Analysis /

GFPT PCL: YoY turnaround expected for 3Q22

  • Higher export volume and prices to boost 3Q22 sales

  • Insights into 3Q22—a robust YoY turnaround; a QoQ core profit leap

  • For 3Q22, we assume GFN’s Bt160m net profit

Bualuang Securities
20 October 2022

Higher export and byproduct prices, improved export volume and GFN’s return to black ink will provide a 3Q22 turnaround. Its YoY robust growth will continue in 4Q22 with McKey’s third processing plant offering a new catalyst in 2H22 and 2023. Its valuation is currently cheap.

Higher export volume and prices to boost 3Q22 sales

We have raised our estimates for GFPT’s direct export volume in 3Q22 by 5% (from 8.3k to 8.7k tonnes; or up 61% YoY and 16% QoQ) to factor in higher export volumes to Europe and China. We expect the export volume to Europe to be about 2.9k tonnes, up 61% YoY and 26% QoQ, thanks to reopening, while that to Japan should be 3.3k tonnes, up 32% YoY and flattish QoQ. Exports to China will be 1.7k tonnes, up 143% YoY and 55% QoQ, fueled by the reopening of more cities and loosening of COVID-related goods inspection measures at the ports.