TIDLOR looks set to expand business through 2022, despite the rising inflation environment. The key driver is its IT platform (Ngern Tidlor Card, use of AI to acquire clients, and the insurance brokerage biz). Our earnings projections are Bt895m for 1Q22, up by 14% YoY and 13% QoQ, and Bt3.96bn for 2022, up 25% YoY (led by loan growth, rising insurance premium sales, and a lower cost/income ratio).
1Q22 profit to mark a rise of 14% YoY (and 13% QoQ)
We estimate 1Q22 earnings of Bt895m, up by 14.2% YoY, and 12.5% QoQ, even though the effective interest rate for truck loans was cut from 15% in 3Q21 to 10%+ (TIDLOR launched a promotional rate, effective Sep 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022). Also, we assume a cost/income ratio of 58.5%—down from 64.0% in 4Q21 (heavier staff costs and seasonally heavy marketing spend in the fourth-quarter) and 61.4% in 1Q21—in large part because operating income rose. The drivers of the modeled bottom-line expansion were lending (supported by YoY and QoQ sales point expansion) and insurance premium sales growth. We assume non-NII growth of 18% YoY (down seasonally 7% QoQ).