Fixed Income Analysis /

Weekly Supply Preview - Extra-long end in the spotlight

    Francesco Maria Di Bella
    12 April 2021
    Published by

    Compared to last week, EGB primary market activity will decline, as Italy, Germany and the Netherlands will sell EUR 12-16bn of government bonds. Risks remain to the upside as some issuers might decide to launch new benchmarks via syndication in the coming days. Issuance activity will be skewed to the extra-long end of the curve, with the Netherlands selling a new long 15Y DSL. There will be EUR 30bn of redemptions from Italy (BTP 0.05% Apr21), Portugal (PGB 3.85% Apr21) and Finland (RFGB 3.5% Apr21), while coupons will amount to EUR 2bn. Therefore, net supply is likely to be negative this week. On top of this EGB issuance activity, the European Union is expected to sell EUR 5bn of bonds in the 15Y area.