Strategy Note /
Russia

Weekly Radar – The price of growth – inflation high on the agenda

  • Commodity stocks expected to lead an advance in Russian equities

  • Emerging markets struggled last week, but Russia eked out a gain

  • Trade in focus as balance starts to tilt towards services

John Walsh
John Walsh

Equity Strategist

Contributors
Denis Dorofeev
Boris Krasnozhenov
Alfa
9 November 2021
Published by

Commodity stocks expected to lead an advance in Russian equities: The focus this week is going to be on inflation and price growth, culminating in US CPI data on Wednesday. Tightness in the US labor market combined with disruption in global supply chains should result in another high reading for US consumer prices due on Wednesday, with any upside surprise likely to rekindle talk of an earlier Federal Reserve hike.

Energy and commodity prices have firmed at the start of the week amid a slightly weaker US dollar. The congressional passage of a long-delayed $1 tn US infrastructure bill has a positive read-through for commodity stocks, particularly metals & miners and energy. Data out over the weekend also showed China’s exports beat forecasts in October to deliver a record trade surplus, although a miss on imports added to evidence of slowing domestic demand. Overall, we expect Russian cyclical stocks to remain well bid this week, particularly commodity stocks.