Apart from a swift 2022-25 core profit CAGR (driven by recognition of earnings at INTUCH and the start-ups of GSRC and GPD), we see scope for upside to our 2022-30 forecasts from new renewable capacity to be developed by the GULF-GUNKUL JV (including tenders for a tranche of 5GW in renewable PPAs that the ERC will open to technical bidding soon). GULF is transforming into one of Thailand’s (and ASEAN’s) biggest infrastructure players. Within the next few years, its (contract-backed) earnings will surpass AOT’s and ADVANC’s (but its earnings won’t have entered a mature slow-growth stage), so its market capitalization could reach Bt1trn by then, we believe. BUY!
GULF posted a 3Q22 net profit of Bt1,087m, down by 32% YoY and 29% QoQ. NPAT was 16% short of our estimate (heavier interest expenses than assumed). Stripping out extra items, core earnings would be Bt2,167m, down by 5% YoY and 30% QoQ. The core number was 21% below our estimate (heavier interest expenses than assumed).