Sovereign Analysis /

VENEZUELA: What might recovery look like?

    Stuart Culverhouse
    Stuart Culverhouse

    Chief Economist & Head of Fixed Income Research

    Tellimer Research
    7 June 2017
    Published byTellimer Research
    In this note, we hypothesise about what a sovereign restructuring and recovery might look like in Venezuela, assuming there is a default. It’s probably fair to say that most people expect Venezuela to default at some point soon (except for the government) so it shouldn’t be a surprise, if and when it happens. We refrain from undertaking a proper long-term DSA, in part because of significant data inadequacies and policy uncertainty, and instead use a more stylised approach.