Equity Analysis /
Thailand

TMBThanachart Bank: Unleashing the giant within!

  • Loan growth ready to resume

  • Interest rates and FIDF fee to rise

  • HP ceiling rate risk, inflation, and global recession fears

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

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Bualuang Securities
2 November 2022

TTB’s stock price has risen 12% in the last two weeks. What does the market know? We will host a virtual conference today (13:00-14:00) for local investors with TTB executives that will offer insights into how the bank plans to build value and earnings going forward.

Loan growth ready to resume

TTB’s loan portfolio declined 1.6% YoY in 2021 and was flattish YoY in 2020, as it focused on asset quality (managing NPLs and its credit cost) and merging the two banks’ operations during the COVID-19 era (its loan portfolio jumped 103% in 2019 with the consolidation of Thanachart Bank). But we believe TTB is now ready to resume building organic business, as it has completed consolidating the two operations, launched a new digital platform, and its asset quality is good. Moreover, the bank has already set management overlay and cleared NPLs by writing them off. Hence, we expect YoY loan growth of 3.5% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023 (led by retail business).