Equity Analysis /

Siam Cement: Uninspiring outlook priced in

  • 3Q22 core earnings to weaken, led south by Chemical biz

  • CBM biz profit to fall YoY; Packaging biz earnings to rise YoY

  • 4Q22 core profit looks set to soften further YoY

Suppata Srisuk
Suppata Srisuk

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
7 October 2022

The uninspiring outlook through 4Q22 and potential consensus earnings downgrades may cap the share price performance going forward. Nevertheless, the current valuation has already priced this in, further downside should be limited. Downgraded to HOLD.

3Q22 core earnings to weaken, led south by Chemical biz

We project SCC to post a 3Q22 net profit of Bt1,974m (down by 71% YoY and 80% QoQ) and core earnings of Bt3,554m (down by 59% YoY and 65% QoQ), squeezed mainly by weaker Chemical biz earnings. The Chemical unit looks set to report weaker numbers both YoY and QoQ for 3Q22, due to smaller YoY sales volume (flat QoQ) [slower demand across the board] and lower spreads for all products (YoY and QoQ). From the margin perspective, chemical spreads fell YoY, squeezed by lower product prices amid an increase in Naphtha feedstock cost.