Strategy Note /
MENA

UAE: Oil price more than new visas should lift torpor

    Hasnain Malik
    Hasnain Malik

    Strategy & Head of Equity Research

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    Tellimer Research
    21 May 2018
    Published byTellimer Research
    New expatriate visa and ownership rules announced on 20 May (source: WAM) are small positives for the long-term, non-oil, economic outlook of the UAE. But these non-oil sectors, outside the luxury segment, remain constrained by high costs and regional geopolitics. Population growth has decelerated substantially since 2012. Overall, the increase in oil price probably matters much more than these new rules in the foreseeable future, in terms of both the funding for government-related spending and the inbound investment flows from regional wealth tied to oil. This oil price increase is large enough, in our view, to merit a revisit of UAE stocks that have underperformed frontier and small emerging peers.