Equity Analysis /

Minor International PCL: Turnaround in play

  • Best play on earnings recovery, 2Q22 onward

  • NH Hotel Group is leading the recovery

  • QSR business has been profitable and expanding

Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Kalvalee Thongsomaung

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
23 May 2022

After a two-year slump, we are excited over MINT’s strong profit recovery story for 2Q22 onward. Our model indicates that 2023 earnings will hit 90% of its 2019 number and 2024 earnings will beat the 2019 number. MINT trades at an undemanding 2023 PER of 35x, 1.3SD above its 2002-22 mean. We have re-initiated cover-age with a BUY call to a DCF-derived YE22 target price of Bt40.

Best play on earnings recovery, 2Q22 onward

MINT is one of the best tourism recovery plays for its sharp bottom-line turnaround story, starting 2Q22. We expect profits through the rest of this year (after deep core losses of Bt19.3bn for 2020, Bt9.3bn for 2021, and Bt3.3bn for 1Q22). Our model points to earnings of Bt1.2bn for 2022 Bt6.4bn for 2023 (equal to 90% of 2019 profit). The drivers are ex-Thailand hotels (chiefly NH Hotel Group, NHH), shallower losses at Thai hotels, and a strong QSR biz. MINT’s 2023 PER of 35x (1.3SD above its 2002-22 mean of 20x) is inexpensive, in our view.