Turkish lira stability could be short-lived if CBRT fails to reverse course
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CBRT held the repo rate at 14%, in line with expectations, adopting a wait-and-see approach, despite the inflation spike
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With inflation at 36% and a -22% real policy rate, aggressive hikes are needed to prevent a further inflation spiral
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Policy interventions have stabilised TRY but raised risk, with weakness likely to resume without rate hikes; retain Sell
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").
The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.