Turkish lira reversal and reserve depletion in four charts
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Lira defense policy triggers 45% rally so far this week and sends TRY volatility to record high
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Could offer temporary relief, but introduces risk of vicious inflationary spiral if TRY depreciation resumes
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Rally could be sustained if it’s reversal of prior overshoot, but retain Sell on TRY due to asymmetric downside risk
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").
The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.