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Turkish equities continued their negative de-coupling

  • The loss of confidence by international investors following the sacking of the successful CBRT governor
  • On the other hand, Turkey continues to deal with record number of Covid cases and deaths,
  • We might continue to trend lower to the 200 DMA(exponential) of 1315

Turkish equities continued their negative de-coupling as temporary bouts of optimism fade away quickly once you have lost your main anchor. The loss of confidence by international investors following the sacking of the successful CBRT governor will continue to haunt us for a while. On the other hand, Turkey continues to deal with record number of Covid cases and deaths, as the new stricter lock-down rules are in place. However, it looks like we will need a harder, full lock down for at least 2-3 weeks before we can bring down new infections to below 30K(55K yesterday) as the vaccination rate is still not the desired speed.

We might continue to trend lower to the 200 DMA(exponential) of 1315 this week as strong 1Q expectations starting next week are not enough to bring back new buyers.

We are re-initiating our coverage on aviation stocks as our new analyst takes over. We rate TAVHL TI as our only buy with a TL31/share PT and 61% upside, while Turkish airlines and Pegasus are both Marketpeform.

Weekly Macro Agenda:

April 22: April Consumer Confidence (March 86.7)


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