Turkish equities continue to be more resilient thanks to a record low level of foreign ownership that has dropped from 65% in 2018 to below 39%, hence outflows in the midst of such a big global crisis have remained limited despite the increase in macro risks i.e CA deficit, inflation.
Turkey has very few thematic stocks that stand out in the midst of the current global crisis. Turkey is a net importer of all sorts of commodities and not a net exporter of any commodity. Eregli & Kardermir are the only companies that supply their own ore for production and has negligible scrap usage.
Other than that, Tupras’ business is all tied to crack spreads and other than rising oil prices inventory gain effect, in an outlook of declining global economic growth, higher margins are usually not the outcome.
We believe it is still best to remain defensive with food retailers & maybe some exposure to food companies, telcos and steelmakers, as they will benefit from what is happening geopolitically (Turkey is a net importer of flat steel and mostly from Russia & Ukraine, hence their margins will improve in the midst of product unavailability).
Company news:
*SISE TI> bought back 1.5mn shares at an average price of TL11.85 on 07 March 2022. Since February, 26 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 43.2mn at an average price of TL9.17.
*SAHOL TI> bought back 500K shares at an average price of TL15.24 on 07 Mar 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 29.1mn at an average price of TL14.70.
Weekly Agenda:
March 8: MPARK 4Q21 cons TL 48 mn
March 10: January Unemployment rate (December 11.2%)
March 10 ULKER 4Q21 cons -TL 977mn ATA -TL 1,018 mn
March 10: GUBRF 4Q21
March 11 VESTL 4Q21 cons -TL 14 mn
March 11: January Current Account Balance (Consensus -USD7.35bn)
March 11: January Industrial Production( Consensus -2.2% m/m, 9.5% y/y)
March 14 MAVI 4Q21 cons TL 34 mn ATA TL 22 mn