Equity Analysis /
Turkey

Turkish Autos: Motor vehicle exports increased by 14% y/y to 96K unit in March

  • Passenger Car (PC) exports were down by 1% y/y to 57K units whereas LCV exports were up 47% y/y to 36K units in Mar 2021

  • HCV exports were up by 34% y/y to 2.4K units in Mar 2021

  • TOASO’ export volume was up by 3% y/y to 10K in Mar 2021 while FROTO’s export sales volume was up by 51% y/y to 32K

Aytunc Uz
Aytunc Uz

Equity Research Analyst

Follow
ATA Invest
12 April 2021
Published byATA Invest

On a segmental basis, Passenger Car (PC) exports were down by 1% y/y to 57K units whereas LCV exports were up 47% y/y to 36K units in Mar 2021. HCV exports were up by 34% y/y to 2.4K units in Mar 2021.

Tofas’ export volume was up by 3% y/y to 10K units in Mar 2021. Ford Otosan’s export sales volume was up by 51% y/y to 32K units during the same period.

Tofas and Ford Otosan has announced their guidance with 4Q20 results. Tofas expects 150-165K units export, slightly below our estimate of 167K. Ford Otosan expects 325-335K units export volume, slightly above our estimate of 305K units. Between 2015-2019, Tofas 1Q export units were on average 25.3% of its full year exports. If we make an estimate based on 25.3% 1Q exports to total exports in 2021E, we calculate 131.0K export sales units for Tofas which is 13-21% less than its export guidance. Between 2015-2019, Ford Otosan 1Q export units were on average 25.7% of its total year export sales units. If we assume the same trend for 2021E, we calculate 331K units export volume which is 2% above the lower band and 1% below the upper band.

Motor vehicle production in Turkey was up by 19% y/y to 123K in Mar 2021 mainly driven by 57% y/y increase in LCV production to 44K units. HCV production was up 34% y/y to 4.3K units in Mar 2021.

Domestic HCV (Heavy Commercial Vehicle) sales surged by 129% y/y to 3.5K units in Mar 2021.  Higher HCV sales could be a signal for economic recovery.