Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: We expect USD:TRY to test above 16 today

  • No details about the widely expected “inflation hedged bond” came out of the cabinet meeting yesterday

  • USD:TRY jumped to 15.99 this morning compared to 15.80 yesterday

  • In CBRT’s May expectations survey CPI expectations for the next 12-months have climbed to 33.28% from 28.41% a month ago

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
24 May 2022
Published by

No details about the widely expected “inflation hedged bond” came out of the cabinet meeting yesterday, hence USD:TRY jumped to 15.99 this morning compared to 15.80 yesterday. In CBRT’s May expectations survey, CPI expectations for the next 12-months have climbed to 33.28% from 28.41% a month ago.

So, in a best-case scenario, the yield received will be the next 12-months CPI, but we do not expect any positive real return embedded into the new instrument. The budget will not be able to accomodate too much additional interest expense at this point.

We expect USD:TRY to test above 16 today and whenever the new instrument comes out, the retreat might be limited in our view.

Company news:

*GARAN TI> Garanti is being deleted from MSCI indices today and most of the expected selling materialized yesterday. 63m shares(585m left in the free float) exchanged hands in the last 10 minutes. Garanti will continue to be one of the most volatile and most traded stocks in the coming days.

*ARCLK TI> bought back 600K shares at an average price of TL68.85 on 23 May 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 67.2mn at an average price of TL44.44.

*SAHOL TI> bought back 500K shares at an average price of TL19.57 on 23 May 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 46.0mn at an average price of TL16.10. 

*SISE TI> bought back 5,350k shares at an average price of TL19.20 on 23 May 2022. Since February, 26 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 78.6mn at an average price of TL13.24.

*ISMEN TI> will pay 1,1267605/share dividend today and the reference price will be TL 19,373.

*ECILC TI> will pay 0,292/share dividend today and the reference price will be TL 9,308.