Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: We expect another positive opening

  • Yesterday BIST 100 managed to close above 5,400 resistance level

  • today’s resistance level is at 5.480 which is a very strong resistance level

  • Not only in TRY terms but also in USD terms BIST 100 is at overbought levels yet the cash inflow continues

ATA Invest
21 December 2022
Published byATA Invest

The banking stocks which were on a tear on Monday had a steep correction, particularly Halkbank & Vakifbank were both limit down at one point. There is no macro outlook to change our view on the banking sector. 2023 earnings will be 15-20% lower on the back of lower CPI-linker income and with slower economic activity will push higher cost of risk for all banks. We would choose to be Neutral for banks in 2023. Today we expect another positive opening in the market. Yesterday BIST 100 managed to close above 5,400 resistance level and today’s resistance level is at 5.480 which is a very strong resistance level. Not only in TRY terms but also in USD terms BIST 100 is at overbought levels yet the cash inflow continues.

Macro news:

Consumer Confidence Index CCI declined by 1.3% m/m to 75.6 in Dec22. Financial situation expectation of households decreased by 0.6% m/m to 75.4 in Dec’22. General economic situation expectation declined by 4.0% m/m to 77.3. Number of people unemployed expectations declined by 3.4% m/m to 72.0 in Dec’22. Probability of savings declined by 1.9% m/m to 31.3 in Dec’22.

According to official gazette, Motor Vehicle Tax will be increased by 61.5% in 2023.

Company news:

*TUPRS TI>, has applied for a preliminary license for an additional SPP and WPP capacity. Tuupras had announced that Entek Elektrik Üretimi A.Ş., a subsidiary of Tüpraş, applied to the Energy Market Regulatory Authority for 15 projects and an additional capacity of 1.004.5 MW, with the commitment to establish energy storage facilities at the same amount within the scope of the Regulation on Storage Activities. The company announced that further pre-license application has been made by Entek Elektrik Üretimi A.Ş. for a total of 7 projects, including 40 MW SPP and 417 MW WPP, for a total additional capacity of 457 MW. Along with these new applications, pre-license applications have been made for a total of 22 projects, 190 MW SPP and 1.271.5 MW WPP, and a total additional capacity of 1,461.5 MW and all of the applications have been completed. The company announced that, the investment process, cost and financing principles of the projects to be implemented in case of pre-license will be shared with our investors when they become clear.

*TAVHL TI> won the tender for the 25-year operation right of Ankara Esenboga Airport for EUR420mn. With this result, the operating rights of Ankara Esenboga Airport will be belong to Tav Airports until May 2050. Previously, Tav Airports and Fraport AG partnership won the 25-year operating right (2027-2051) tender for Antalya Airport on December 1, 2021. According to the agreement, 25% of the concession fee was paid in advance, 10% is expected to be paid in equal instalments between 2027-2031, and the remaining 65% is expected to be paid in equal instalments between 2032-2051 to DHMI. Details of the Ankara Esenboga tender will be shared later. Please recall TAVHL TI is one of ATA TOP Picks and we have an Outperform recommendation with a 12M TP of TRY 122.10 which implies 29% upside potential.

*MPARK TI> bought back 14K shares at an average price of TL82.41 on 20 December 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 6.9mn at an average price of TL49.60.

Weekly Agenda:

Dec, 22: CBRT Interest Rate decision

Dec, 22: BRSA Weekly banking sector data