Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: We expect a slightly negative opening today

  • BIST-100 tested 2343 level yesterday

  • Daily support levels are 2310, 2300 and 2270

  • Local agenda is quiet and eyes are still on Russia-Ukrainian war

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
6 April 2022
Published by

BIST-100 tested the 2343 level yesterday with strong volume, yet joined global markets and faced weakness in the PM session. The local agenda is quiet and eyes are still on the Russia-Ukraine war.

We expect a slightly negative opening today. Daily support levels are 2310, 2300 and 2270.

Macro news:

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) increased by 0.2% m/m to 54.01 in Mar’22 (Feb’22: 53.92). FX basket which is calculated as an average of Euro and US$ appreciated 5.4% m/m in Mar’22 (Feb’22: 1.0%).

Company news:

*AKBNK TI> Akbank sold TL1.53bn liras of NPL portfolio for TL180.7mn, implying a recovery rate of 11.8%, which is higher than recovery rates of 2021. We see this as neutral development for the bank

*SAHOL TI> bought back 810K shares at an average price of TL17.36 on 05 Apr 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 36.9mn at an average price of TL15.10.

*ARCLK TI> bought back 376K shares at an average price of TL61.61 on 5 April 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 58.3mn at an average price of TL40.85.

*AKSEN TI> shared impressive EBITDA guidance of TL5.48bn, implying 110% growth and 4.2x 22E EV/EBITDA multiple (positive) According to the presentation dated 5 April 2022, AKSEN management expects net sales of TL24.2bn, EBITDA of TL5.48bn and CAPEX of TL1.37bn in 2022. The company aims to increase its net sales by 74% to TL13.89bn in 2022. 73% of its revenues will come from domestic operations whereas the remaining 27% will be generated from international operations. The company’s EBITDA is expected to increase by 110% to TL5.48bn in 2022. During the same period, the share of EBITDA from international operations (Uzbekistan and Africa) will increase to 64% in 2022 from 54% in 2021. Based on the guidance, the company trades at 4.2x 2022E EV/EBITDA multiple, implying 18% discount its 5 yr avg of 5.11x.

Weekly Agenda:

7 April: March Cash Budget Balance

7 April: KCHOL dividend payment TL 0.90/share