After a 16% m/m rally, the index naturally is losing a bit of its momentum and the decline of risk appetite in global markets is also not helping. FED minutes were a tad more hawkish than expected and the last step of quantitative tightening will start in May with expected paring of USD 1 trillion assets per annum.
The only other QT we saw was back in 2013 and it did not bode well for EMs, but for Turkey’s case the involvement of foreign investors in financial assets was at a record high and currently it is at an all-time low. Hence the volatility in US markets will have less of an impact than previous years.
There is positive news from the US Foreign Secretary’s office, as a report submitted to Congress says that Turkey has paid enough of a price in the spat about S-400s and its request to buy 40 new generation F-16s and 80 modernization kits for the existing F-16 fleet should be reviewed in the light of recent developments in the region.
This is a very rare development and in days like this usually Halkbank and Aselsan give a positive bounce back as they have suffered from poor US-Turkey relations and the ongoing Halkbank case in the US. We expect a slight positive opening on the back of this development.
Turk Traktor <TTRAK TI> total sales volume decreased by 15.0% y/y in March...
On a segmental basis, domestic volume decreased by 29.0% y/y whereas export sales volume increased by 23.6% y/y respectively. Going forward, we foresee TTRAK’s domestic tractor sales volume to increase by 4% y/y to 33.2K units and export sales volume to increase by 2% y/y to 16.5K units in 2022E. We maintain our “Outperform” recommendation for TTRAK with our 12M TP of TL320.50. Based on our estimates, the company trades at 22E 5.1x EV/EBITDA and 22E 7.4x P/E, compared to its 5-year average 6.7x EV/EBITDA and 7.6x P/E multiple.
Koç Holding <KCHOL TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.90/shr (2.27% div. yield)
Arcelik <ARCLK TI> bought back 379K shares at an average price of TL62.53 on 6 April 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 58.7mn at an average price of TL40.99.