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Turkey: We expect a slight positive opening

  • CBT governor yesterday said fears of premature rate cuts are unjust
  • The words cooled down the TL depreciation slightly yet TL/USD is still above Tuesday closing levels
  • Today May inflation figures will be out, where ATA expects 1.44% vs 1.5% consensus expectations

Following President Erdogan’s call for lower interest rates again on late Tuesday night which was followed by weak TL, the CBT governor yesterday said fears of premature rate cuts are unjust. The words cooled down the TL depreciation slightly yet TL/USD is still above Tuesday closing levels.

Today May inflation figures will be out where ATA expects 1.44% vs 1.5% consensus expectations. Global markets are almost flat since the beginning of the week and oil prices keep rising We expect a slight positive opening today in the market 1,440-1,450-1,465 are the short-term resistance levels.

Macro news:

According to the Ministry of Trade, the foreign trade deficit increased by 20.7% y/y to US$4.15bn in May’21. The proportion of imports covered by exports increased by 554bps y/y to 79.9% in May’21. Exports increased by 65.5% y/y to US$16.48bn while imports increased by 54.0% to US$20.63bn inMay’21. The foreign trade deficit declined by 13.1% y/y to US$18.28bn in 5M21.

Company news:

MGROS: Migros opened 16 net new stores in May.  ( neutral)

Migros opened 18 new stores and closed 2 stores in May, reaching 2,366 stores as of May-end.

ATPTP: will start trading in BIST on June, 4th, tomorrow

Weekly Agenda:

June 3: May inflation number ATA exp: CPI 1.44% m/m, cons: 1.5%

June 4: May REER (prior 62.29)

June 4: Moody's Turkey Rating Decision


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