Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: We expect a positive opening towards 2,450 level

  • US futures are weak and Asian stocks are slightly positive this morning

  • We will hear June inflation figure where the consensus expects 5.5% for CPI

  • Last week BIST 100 was weak and faced strong weaknesses during the day

Zeynep Erman
Zeynep Erman

Equity Research Analyst

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ATA Invest
4 July 2022
Published byATA Invest

US futures are weak and Asian stocks are slightly positive this morning. Risk-off mode is still on. Today We will hear the June inflation figure where the consensus expects 5.5% for CPI. Last week BIST 100 was weak and faced strong weaknesses during the day. We expect a positive opening towards 2,450 level today and 2,470-2,490 levels can be tested in case the positive mood continues.

Company news:

*TOASO TI > According to Dünya newspaper, as a result of the negotiations between Stellantis and Koç Holding last week, an agreement was reached for three new models, passenger and commercial, starting from 2025 in the Tofas’s <TOASO TI>Bursa factory. The news has not been confirmed yet. Please recall that transfer of Fiat Doblo model production was confirmed on 8 June, as expected. However, no announcement was made about new projects which led to overhang on Tofas shares since then. So in case today's news will be confirmed, it will be positive for TOASO TI. In 2021, Tofas sold 234.8K units of light vehicles. During the same period, Fiat Doblo sales volume was 66.5K, representing 28% of Tofas’ sales volume. In domestic sales and exports, Fiat Doblo had 24% and 34%, shares in Tofas’ sales volume, respectively, in 2021. As stated earlier, due to the transfer of Fiat Doblo production to Spain, we do not expect any impact on our sales volume estimates for 2022. If production of Fiat Doblo in Turkey, NAFTA, Middle East and Africa, will be extended to 2023-end, sales volume impact is likely to be 10% in 2023, assuming that Fiat Doblo exports to Europe constituted 62% of its total Fiat Doblo exports. All in all, sales volume impact is likely to be 10% in 2023 and full sales volume impact is likely to be 28% in 2024 and after, assuming that Fiat Doblo production will fully end by the end of 2023. No announcement or further delay about potential new product projects was raising questions about the future prospects about Tofas within Stellantis global production network as well as Stellantis-Koc Holding strategic partnership.

* MPARK TI> announced that the company decided to exit the operations of Medical Park Tarsus Hospital in order to increase its portfolio efficiency in line with the company's strategy of growing with large-scale hospitals in metropolitan areas. (neutral) Please note that, the share of the Tarsus hospital in consolidated hospital revenue was 1.1% and 0.1% in consolidated EBITDA in 1Q22

*MPARK TI> bought back 39K shares at an average price of TL33.02 on 01 July 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 1.3mn at an average price of TL34.47

*SISE TI> bought back 903k shares at an average price of TL21.20 on 1 July 2022. Since February, 26 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 86.4mn at an average price of TL13.91.

Weekly Agenda:

July 4: June inflation CPI data expects 4.7% cons: 5.5%

July 5: June REER

July 7: BRSA Weekly Banking Sector Data

July 8: May CAD

July 8: July survey of expectations