Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: We expect a positive opening

  • Turkish equities continued to de-couple positively

  • After a profit-taking effort coupled with short-sellers took the index in negative territory

  • After 5 days of selling Asian markets are also in positive territory, helping risk sentiment

ATA Invest
18 August 2021
Published byATA Invest

Turkish equities continued to de-couple positively as the index continues to punish short-sellers heavily. After a profit-taking effort coupled with short-sellers took the index in negative territory, strong buying in index heavy weights Tupras and Koc Holding helped the index to recover from its daily lows as short-sellers in banks were also squeezed.

After 5 days of selling, Asian markets are also in positive territory, helping risk sentiment. We expect a positive opening and the index to break through its strong tested resistance at 1465 and test 1475 today.

Koc Holding, Tupras and Turk Telekom are the names to watch today and if Garanti breaks 9.51, we could expect it to move 9.75-80 territory.

Company news:

Pegasus <PGSUS TI> 2Q21 Review: Better than expected results…

Pegasus posted EUR65mn net loss in 2Q21 which is 33% less than our estimate of EUR98mn net loss and 10% less than consensus estimate of EUR73mn net loss. Deviation was mainly due to positive impact of EUR15mn higher than expected EBIT and EUR20mn less than expected net financial expenses.

The company’s EBITDA was EUR14mn in 2Q21. As Ata Invest we were expecting EUR5mn EBITDA while consensus estimate was EUR2mn.

After 1Q20 results, PGSUS had withdrawn its 2020 guidance and no guidance is given about financials for 2021E with 2Q21 results due to ongoing uncertainties regarding Covid-19 developments. However, PGSUS plans to reach 90% of its 3Q19 ASK in 3Q21E, 80-85% of its 4Q19 ASK in 4Q21E and 70-75% of its 2019 ASK in 2021E. As of 2Q21, fleet size reached 93 aircrafts with 2 net exits in 2Q21. PGSUS year-end fleet size estimate is 91 aircrafts. In 2Q21 presentation, no capacity outlook shared for 2022E due to ongoing pandemic concerns

Aksa Enerji <AKSEN TI> 2Q21 Results: Aksa Energy posted TL280mn net income in 2Q21, higher than the consensus estimate of TL224mn. (not rated, positive)

Consolidated revenues increased by 62% y/y to TL2,620mn, 35% above the consensus estimate, mostly thanks to strong growth in Turkey region. African revenue was up 24% y/y to TL430mn whereas revenues from Turkey increased by 72% y/y to TL2,190mn.

Aksa Enerji’s EBITDA increased by 74% y/y to TL621mn in 2Q21, 33% above the consensus estimate of TL466mn. Regionally, Aksa Enerji's adjusted EBITDA from Turkey increased by 123% y/y to TL263mn in 2Q21 while its African division’s EBITDA increased by 61% y/y to TL353mn during the same period.

Aksa Enerji’s EBITDA margin increased by 164bps y/y to 23.7%, 27bps lower than the consensus estimate of 24.0% in 2Q21.

Net debt increased by 7% q/q to TL2.87bn in 2Q21. The company’s net debt / EBITDA ratio declined to 1.51x in 2Q21 from 1.64x in 1Q21