Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: We expect a flattish opening

  • BIST 100 broke our short term resistance levels

  • Foreign shares in the market keep increasing. 3.000 is a very critical and important resistance in the market

  • We expect positive stance in banking sector to continue.

ATA Invest
18 August 2022
Published byATA Invest

BIST 100 broke our short term resistance levels and approached to 3.000 resistance level thanks to the buying in banking sector shares yesterday where GARAN and ISCTR were limit up. Foreign share in the market keep increasing. 3.000 is a very critical and important resistance in the market and in case broken up the volatility may increase. 2.965 and 2.950 are the daily support levels. We expect positive stance in banking sector to continue. TAVHL and SISE can be in a catch up move. BIMAS 2Q financials were in line with expectations but guidance was revised up.

Company news:

*BIMAS TI> 2Q22 Review: Significant upward revision to topline guidance... Bim realised TL1,676mn net income in 2Q22, broadly in line with our estimate of TL1,656mn and consensus estimate of TL1,621mn. Negative impact of lower than expected EBITDA was surpassed by higher than expected net other income. Supported by stronger than expected LfL growth, net sales were 2.2% above both our estimates and consensus estimates. EBITDA margin of 8.1% was lower than our estimate of 8.6% and consensus estimate of 8.3%. Significant upward revision to 2022E revenue guidance: (1) “100-110%” topline growth guidance from “70-80%” vs our estimate of 89.1% and (2) EBITDA margin guidance is maintained at 8.5% (+-0.5pt) vs our estimate of 8.8%. Historically, Bim management has a strong track record of meeting their topline growth guidance. Considering the current inflation and upbeat management guidance, we see an upside risk to our growth estimates.

*AKSEN TI> 2Q22 Results: Aksa Energy posted TL1,283mn net income in 2Q22 which was 6% lower than the consensus estimate of TL1,364mn. (not rated) Thanks to strong growth in Turkey region, consolidated revenues increased by 384% y/y to TL12,676mn and 72% higher than consensus estimate of TL7,389mn. African revenue was up by 69% y/y to TL729mn in 2Q22 whereas revenues from Turkey increased by 428% y/y to TL11,553mn during the same period. Aksa Enerji’s EBITDA increased by 172% y/y to TL1,688mn in 2Q22 which was 12% lower than consensus estimate of TL1,923mn. Aksa Enerji’s EBITDA margin decreased by 1.04pts y/y to 13.3% which was 1.27pts lower than consensus estimates of 26% in 2Q22. Net debt increased by 5% q/q to TL6.37bn in 2Q22. The company’s net debt / EBITDA ratio declined to 1.36x in 2Q22 from 1.68x in 1Q22.

*ULKER TI> 2Q22 Review: Weaker than expected bottomline. Realised TL649mn net loss, worse than our estimate of TL414mn net loss and consensus estimate of TL265mn net loss. Deviation from our estimates could be attributed to higher than financial expenses and loss on financial assets. Topline growth of 135.6% was 5.0% above of our estimates. EBITDA margin of 18.9% was 95bps below our estimate but 40 bps above consensus. Ulker had c.€325mn short FX due to Onem Gıda acquisition. In our view, this acquisition had dilutive impact on Ulker’s valuation considering the acquisition price. We believe that most of the negatives priced into the share price but still lacks a catalyst. Ulker’s current mcap of US$316mn is closer to the lowest level during the last 10 years, which is 80% below 10-yr avg of US$1.7bn and 90% below 10-yr max of US$3bn.

*Fertilizer Sector: Government will be giving support to fertilizer facility planned by Tosyali Group in Turkey in Zonguldak province. The investment will be exempt from customs duty, VAT and income tax. Total size of the investments is 31.5b liras ($1.8b)

*EKGYO TI> posted TL678mn net income in 2Q22, lower than the consensus estimates of TL828mn. (not rated) EKGYO is currently trading at 54% discount compared its NAV whereas it was trading at 60% historically.

*MPARK TI> bought back 113K shares at an average price of TL42.48 on 17 August 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 2.4mn at an average price of TL36.52.

*ARCLK TI> bought back 100K shares at an average price of TL68.31 on 17 August 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 68.7mn at an average price of TL44.89.

Weekly Agenda:

Aug 18: CBRT rate deciosion no change expected

Aug 18: TCELL 2Q22 NI cons TL 895 mn ATA 1109 mn

Aus 18: DOAS 2Q22 NI cons TL 1563 mn ATA 1538 mn