Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: We expect a flat opening

  • Any drop in Brent is a sigh of relief for Turkey and if its USD8-9/bbl, it is even a larger relief

  • President Erdogan announced VAT cuts for several sectors

  • We expect a 15-20% increase for both natural gas & electricity prices on April

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
29 March 2022
Published by

Any drop in Brent is a sigh of relief for Turkey and if its USD8-9/bbl, it is even a larger relief. Every 10 dollar increase in Brent adds roughly USD6-6.5bn to Turkey’s CA deficit, while Turkey’s tourism revenues in 2021 was USD25bn, to put things in perspective.

President Erdogan announced VAT cuts for several sectors but most importantly for some basic consumption such as detergents, paper hygiene products etc. The rate was cut from 18% to 8%, which provides a small relief for households. We expect a 15-20% increase for both natural gas & electricity prices on April 1 but will households be kept exempt to keep inflation down, we don’t know.

We expect a flat opening but with positive global markets, we can test 2200 once again.

Macro news:

Company news:

*BRISA TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL2.03/shr (6.21% div. yield) The reference price for today will be TL 30.632

*ISCTR TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.30/shr (3.50% div. yield) The reference price for today will be TL 8.241

*SAHOL TI> bought back 299K shares at an average price of TL17.09 on 28 Mar 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 35.1mn at an average price of TL14.99.

*ARCLK TI> bought back 330K shares at an average price of TL55.59 on 28 March 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 56.6mn at an average price of TL40.26.

Weekly Agenda:

March, 29: ISCTR TL 0.30/share cash dividend payment

March, 30: March Economic Confidence

March, 30: AKBNK TL 0.23/share cash dividend payment

March, 31: February Trade Balance( Consensus -US$8.1bn, January -US$10.3bn)

March, 31: CIMSA TL 1.48/share cash dividend payment

April, 1: SAHOL TL 0.75/share cash dividend payment

April, 4: March CPI ( Ata estimate 4.7% m/m, 60% y/y)

April, 4: KORDS TL 0.82/share cash dividend payment