Morning Note /

Turkey: We continue our negative journey

  • Nothing came from the Halkbank case hearing yesterday

  • The markets will be focused on the US CPI data

  • The current account deficit increased by 90% y/y to US$2.61bn

ATA Invest
13 April 2021
Published byATA Invest

Nothing came from the Halkbank case hearing yesterday and according to Bloomberg litigation analyst's following the application of HalkBank to the court of appeal under the "Foreign State Immunity Act", the panel of three judges heard the arguments of the parties. Bank lawyers argued that this case was "unprecedented" and that the prosecutor's office had filed a lawsuit against a foreign state for the first time in US history, and that the bank could not be prosecuted under the "Foreign State Immunity Act". The prosecution argued that the "Foreign State Immunity Law" does not cover criminal cases, and accused the bank of trying to launder USD1bn on behalf of Iran. The court committee did not announce the decision at the end of the hearing, and it will be announced at a later date. If the court of appeal approves, the case will be dropped, otherwise the case will begin at the federal court.

The markets will be focused on the US CPI data which is expected to climb to 2.5%\ anything lower than that will give the markets some joy. We continue our negative journey as we could hear more severe lockdown measures after the cabinet meeting today until the end of Ramadan as the increased number of cases is also risking the 2021 tourism season.

Macro news

The current account deficit increased by 90% y/y to US$2.61bn. Along with the 67% y/y decline in service revenues, the 6.3% increase in trade deficit also led to a wider CA deficit. Foreign trade deficit increased to US$2.1bn in February. Total exports of goods were up by 8.6% y/y, while total imports rose by 8.3% y/y. Normalization in gold imports continued with 23% y/y decrease to US$ 1.0bn in February. Excluding energy and gold, the current account surplus decreased from US$8.0bn to US$6.1bn. The services balance remained below the previous year, driven by a decline in travel and transport revenues. It posted a surplus of US$494mn in February (a surplus of US$1.48bn in the same month of 2020). Tourism revenue (gross) was US$430mn; implying a 65% y/y decline.

Company news

Aksa goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.87/share(5.31% dividend yield)

Enka goes ex-dividend today, paying 0.36/share(4.47% dividend yield)

Vestel sold 4m shares of VESBE at TL55/share, reducing its stake to 85.17%.

Weekly Macro Agenda

April 13: February industrial production(consensus 0%)

April 15: CBRT policy rate decision( ATA 19%, consensus 19%)