We are up for a positive start to the day as the more positive news flow about a possible resolution as Ukraine indicated that it might not insist on NATO membership if security guarantees are given and might discuss the recognition of the 3 eastern states and Crimea.
European equities have given a more positive response since yesterday, as they fell more during Russia’s invasion given their stronger economic ties with Russia. The commodity-linked names like Erdemir & Kardemir, which had been very strong performers over the past 2 weeks might take a breather today, while other underperformers such as banks, Koc Holding could be in the forefront. The expectation of Capital Market Board’s approval for BBVA’s buyback will again be expected this Thursday.
*HALKB TI > Halkbank’s capital has been raised from TL2,474mn to TL4,969mn via an restricted capital increase allocated solely to Turkey’s Sovereign Fund(TSF). TSF’s share in Halkbank’s share capital increases to 87,7% from 75.3%. This is the second dilutive capital increase for minorities in 2 years to strenghten the bank’s balance. This will be ROE dilutive in 2022 and we continue to rate the bank “Underperform”, which continued to underperform the XBANKS both ytd & y/y.
*VAKBN TI> Vakıfbank’s capital has been raised from TL3,905mn to TL7,111mn via an restricted capital increase allocated solely to Turkey’s Sovereign Fund(TSF). TSF’s share in Halkbank’s share capital increases to 64,8% from 35,9%. This is the second dilutive capital increase for minorities in 2 years to strenghten the bank’s balance. This will be ROE dilutive in 2022 and we continue to rate the bank “Underperform”, which continued to underperform the XBANKS both ytd & y/y.
*PAX February> Total passenger in Turkey’s airports up by 74% y/y in February. Domestic and international pax in Turkey increased by 40.3% and 149.2% y/y in February, respectively. Istanbul airport’s, main hub of Turkish Airlines, total pax increased by 116% y/y in February. Considering 116% y/y increase in passenger vs. 91% y/y increase in ATM per day in the same period, THYAO’s load factor is likely to increase y/y in February.Total pax in Sabiha Gokcen, main hub of Pegasus, increased by 63% y/y in February. Domestic and international pax was up by 14% and 204% y/y in February respectively. Considering 63% y/y more passenger vs. 48% y/y more ATM per day in the same period, PGSUS’ load factor is likely to increase y/y in February. TAV Holding’s total PAX increased by 144% y/y to 3.1mn which is 74% of its 2019 level in February. Domestic PAX increased by 76% y/y in February to 1.8mn which is 70% of its 2019 level. Considering domestic PAX was 1.75mn in January which was 61% of its 2019 level, domestic PAX trend improved in February. International PAX increased by 437% y/y to 1.3mn in February which is 80% of its 2019 level. Considering international PAX was 1.2mn in January which was 73% of its 2019 level, there is m/m improvement in international PAX trend.
*SAHOL TI> bought back 615K shares at an average price of TL15.50 on 09 Mar 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 30.0mn at an average price of TL14.72
*ARCLK TI> bought back 800K shares at an average price of TL54.81 on 9 March 2022. Arçelik <ARCLK TI> Board's decided to increase the amount of the fund for the allocation of the share buy-back to TL3bn from TL2.4bn. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 55.4mn at an average price of TL39.94
*ODAS TI> 4Q21 Results: Thanks to deferred tax income, Odas posted TL161mn net income in 4Q21. Revenues of TL434mn was up by 61% y/y in 4Q21. Can power plant ran with 69% CUR in 2021 (2020: 65%). The company’s EBITDA increased by 80% y/y to TL124mn TL in 4Q21. Net debt increased by 55% q/q to TL2,518mn in 4Q21. This implies 5.75x net debt to EBITDA multiple (3Q21:4.29x).
March 10: January Unemployment rate (December 11.2%)
March 10 ULKER 4Q21 cons -TL 977mn ATA -TL 1,018 mn
March 10: GUBRF 4Q21
March 11 VESTL 4Q21 cons -TL 14 mn
March 11: January Current Account Balance (Consensus -USD7.35bn)
March 11: January Industrial Production( Consensus -2.2% m/m, 9.5% y/y)
March 14 MAVI 4Q21 cons TL 34 mn ATA TL 22 mn