Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: We are starting the week with a 3% decline in oil prices

  • Tourism revenues will take a hit from non-arrival of Russians & Ukrainians

  • There should be some compensation from increased European tourists

  • This picture is likely to put pressure on the Lira going forward

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
28 March 2022
Published by

We are starting the week with a 3% decline in oil prices, which we see as the most important factor that will determine Turkey’s macro picture in 2022, as soaring energy prices are set to create a record trade deficit, while we are not really sure how the financing of the trade deficit will evolve as portfolio flows are negative in 1Q and are likely to remain that way throughout the year.

Tourism revenues will take a hit from the non-arrival of Russians & Ukrainians, but there should be some compensation from increased European tourists. This picture is likely to put pressure on the Lira going forward, which will put further pressure on inflation and the cycle is likely to repeat itself until a big slowdown comes our way.

Macro news:

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) increased by 260bps y/y to 77.3% in Mar’22. (+70bps m/m) Seasonally adjusted Manufacturing CUR increased by 260bps y/y to 78.2% in Mar’22 (+100bps m/m).

Company news:

*Banking sector: A new omnibus bill that was brought to the parliament envisages 25% corporate tax rate for banks & other financial service companies. We could see the banks underperforming in the coming days as valuations will need to revised but in a country with 60% inflation, these will be really insignificant.

*TTRAK TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL22.48/shr (8.30% div. yield) The reference price for today is TL248,515

*OTKAR TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL20.83/shr (4.61% div. yield) The reference price for today is TL 431,367

*ARCLK TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL2.22/shr (3.84% div. yield) The reference price for today is TL 55,58 

*SAHOL TI> bought back 500K shares at an average price of TL17.24 on 25 Mar 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 34.8mn at an average price of TL14.97

Weekly Agenda:

March, 29: ISCTR TL 0.30/share cash dividend payment

March, 30: March Economic Confidence

March, 30: AKBNK TL 0.23/share cash dividend payment

March, 31: February Trade Balance( Consensus -US$8.1bn, January -US$10.3bn)

March, 31: CIMSA TL 1.48/share cash dividend payment

April, 1: SAHOL TL 0.75/share cash dividend payment

April, 4: March CPI ( Ata estimate 4.7% m/m, 60% y/y)

April, 4: KORDS TL 0.82/share cash dividend payment