Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: We are starting the week above the 4,970 level

  • Turkish equities were very volatile and due to profit taking sales BIST 100 Index tested 4,711 level

  • FOMC rate decision will be followed on Wednesday

  • Daily resistance levels are 5,030-5,100 -5,300

ATA Invest
12 December 2022
Published byATA Invest

Turkish equities were very volatile and due to profit taking sales BIST 100 Index tested 4,711 level but was able to close above 5,000 resistance again last week. TUPRS has been facing significant cash outflow. FOMC rate decision will be followed on Wednesday. We are starting the week above 4,970 level which is important and the support level for today. Daily resistance levels are 5,030-5,100 -5,300. Aviation companies have been outperforming thanks to the lower oil prices and we remain positive with them; TAVHL THYAO and PGSUS .

Macro news:

Treasury and Finance Minister Nebati said that FX-indexed deposits may not be extended. He also added that TRY is not far from its optimum level and TRY depreciation ruins the plan to fight with inflation.

Company news:

*Banking Sector: BRSA reduced the net foreign currency position of banks from 20% to 5% and as of Jan,9 2023. USD 11 bn expected to be exchange to TRY following the decision.

*MPARK TI> bought back 7K shares at an average price of TL77.52 on 9 December 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 6.8mn at an average price of TL49.31.

*PGSUS TI> Total Pax was up by 12.1% y/y in November 2022, which was at 90% of its 2019 level… (slightly positive) On a segmental basis, domestic Pax was down 15.2% y/y in November 2022, which was at 65.2% of its 2019 level, whereas international Pax increased by 44.3% y/y in November 2022 which was 121.3% of its 2019 level. The share of international in total ASK increased to 79.3% in November 2022 from 66.7% a year ago. Total load factor (LF) was up 654bps y/y to 87.4% in November 2022. International load factor was up 728bps y/y to 87.2% in November 2022 which was 58bps above November 2019’s level. Although load factor in November 2022 is 87.4%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing PAX in November 2022 to seats of November 2019, we find a load factor of 79.6%. Considering that adjusted load factor was 86.9% in October 2022, we observe a m/m decline in load factor due to seasonality. International Pax was up 102% y/y in 11M22 whereas domestic Pax was down 10.2% y/y during the same period. Total load factor was up 572bps to 83.6% y/y in 11M22 due to 357bps increase in domestic and 981bps increase in international load factor.

*MGROS TI> decided to sell 7% of Digital Platform at TL2.1mn to Digital Platform which is expected to be transferred within the scope of management incentive program.

Weekly Agenda:

Dec, 12: Oct Foreign Trade Indices

Dec 12: Oct Unemployment rate

Dec, 12: Oct CAD

Dec,15: Oct Home sales statistics

Dec, 15: BRSA weekly Banking sector Data

Dec,16: Oct CBRT survey of Participants