Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: Waiting for Central Bank rate decision

  • Today is CBRT decision day with consensus and us expecting rates to be on hold at 17%

  • Could there be a small surprise, maybe 50bps or so?

  • CBRT would not make a move unless annual inflation is pointing to 15.5% in January

ATA Invest
21 January 2021
Published byATA Invest

Today is CBRT decision day with consensus and us expecting rates to be on hold at 17%. Could there be a small surprise, may be 50bps or so? CBRT has a better knowledge of January CPI by now and our estimate of 1.6%(revised up from 1.4%2 weeks ago) point to an annualised CPI of 14.9%. CBRT would not make a move unless annual inflation is pointing to 15.5% in January.

Lira is stronger this morning with DXY once again slipping below 90.3 but 5-year CDS' move is not in tandem with the other indicators of the market as it is at 334, up from this year's low of 306. We expect new foreign flows to accelerate with a move down in CDS.

4Q results are starting next week with Arcelik reporting on 25th.

Company news

Emlak Konut <EKGYO TI> expects TL11bn total sales value, implying 27% decline in 2021

Realised sales value of TL15,151mn was %197 higher the company guidance in 2020.

 Unit sales were up by 449% y/y in 2020. Gross sellable area increased by 402% y/y in 2020 while total sales value increased by 434% y/y during the same period. Please note that the company experienced strong sales numbers in June thanks to pent-up demand and lower interest rates and exceeded its sales target as of 2Q20.The company targets TL1.12n net income in 2020, 19% above the Bloomberg consensus.

Emlak Konut announced it 2021 guidance. EKGYO expects TL11bn total sales value, 958K sqm gross sellable area, implying 27% and 41% y/y decline in 2021. Also EKGYO targets TL1.12bn net income in 2021, 10% above the Bloomberg consensus.

EKGYO is currently trading at 56% discount compared its NAV whereas it was trading at 58% historically.

Coca Cola’s <CCOLA TI> Board proposed to pay TL0.83shr additional cash dividend from 2019 net income, implying 1.07% dividend yield.

This cash dividend implies TL211mn cash outflow and 21.9% dividend payout ratio.

 Recall that, Coca cola distributed cash dividends on May 28 from its 2019 earnings, implying 2.17% dividend yield.

 Coca Cola Board aims to distribute cash dividend by  18 Feb’21, pending for the approval at the General Assembly meeting to be held on 17 Feb’21

Weekly Macro Agenda

Jan 21: January Consume confidence(December 80.1)

Jan 21: CBRT one week repo rate decision( Consensus no change at 17%)