Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Today we expect another positive opening in BIST

  • Thanks to the BBVA’s voluntary offer for Garanti’s shares, all private banking shares closed the day at limit up prices

  • BBVA’s voluntary offer price for GARAN shares was TL 12.20 which is likely to be the reference low for investors

  • Eye will be on CBT announcement on Thursday.

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
16 November 2021
Published by

Thanks to the BBVA’s voluntary offer for Garanti’s shares, all private banking shares closed the day at limit up prices which increased the positive sentiment in the market.

Today we expect another positive opening in BIST. If you may recall, BBVA’s voluntary offer price for GARAN shares was TL 12.20 which is likely to be the reference low for the investors. Daily resistance levels are 1,715 -1,725-1,750. Although the latest run signals a correction in BIST-100 Index, the latest newsflow did not let for profit-taking in general.

Eye will be on the CBT announcement on Thursday. We remain positive KCHOL and SOKM for short-term trading.

Company news:

*SISE TI> The cold repair of the flat glass production line in the Bursa factory was completed with an investment of ~EUR40mn, and it was fired with a capacity of 240K tons/year on November 15. <Neutral>

Turkish Autos - October 2021: Motor vehicle exports decreased by 16% y/y… On a segmental basis, passenger car (PC) exports decreased by 15% y/y to 54K units in October 2021 whereas LCV exports decreased by 21% y/y to 31K units during the same period. HCV exports were up by 30% y/y to 2.3K units in October 2021. Tofas’ export volume was down by 24% y/y to 11K units in October 2021. Ford Otosan’s export sales volume was down by 25% y/y to 25K units during the same period. Tofas and Ford Otosan had announced their guidance with 3Q21 results. Tofas had lowered their upper band for export sales volume expectations for 2021E to 120-130K units from 150-160K units. We expect Tofas export sales to increase by 28% y/y to 151K units in 2021E. Ford Otosan revised down their guidance to 305-315K units from 315-325K. In first week of November, FROTO announced production halt between November 6 and November 11. Due to production halt, total production and total sales guidance for 2021E is expected to decrease by approximately 18.0K units mainly from the export volume. We expect 318K export sales volume for FROTO. Between 2015-2019, Tofas 10M export units were on average 84% of its full year exports. If we make an estimate based on 84% 10M exports to total exports in 2021E, we calculate 111K export sales units for Tofas which is 8-15% less than its export guidance. Between 2015-2019, Ford Otosan 10M export units were on average 82% of its total year export sales units. If we assume the same trend for 2021E, we calculate 289K units export volume which is 5-8% below their export guidance. We will review our export volume estimates for a potential downward revision. Motor vehicle production in Turkey declined by 28% y/y to 108K in October 2021 mainly driven by 33% y/y decrease in PC production to 65K units. HCV production was up by 35% y/y to 4.9K units in October 2021. Domestic HCV (Heavy Commercial Vehicle) sales decreased by 38% y/y to 3.3K units in October 2021.

ENKA: Chairman Sinan Tara bought 100k shares within TL 12.33-13.12 range.

INDES: Erol Bilecik sold 9.1 mn shares at TL 6.80 and his stake declined to %32.31

 Weekly Agenda:

18 Nov: MPC One-week repo rate (Consensus 100bps cut to 15%)