Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Today we expect a weak opening in BIST

  • We are starting the day with 10.40 TL/USD rate this morning which is 6% higher than a week ago

  • 1,675 is a critical support level which may be followed with 1,645-1,640 in case broken

  • The risk appetite in global markets is weak which is another signal for profit taking sales

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
17 November 2021
Published by

Despite another positive opening thanks to the banking sector shares, breathless weakness in TL brought selling in equities before closing yesterday in BIST. We are starting the day with a 10.40 TL/USD rate this morning which is 6% higher than a week ago. Today we expect a weak opening in BIST toward 1,675 which is a critical support level which may be followed with 1,645-1,640 in case broken. The risk appetite in global markets is weak which is another signal for profit-taking sales.

Company news:

*YKBNK: Unicredit sold 33m shares of Yapi Kredi shares in the market yesterday. After agreeing to sell its 18% stake at a pre-determined price of TL2.39/share, Unicredit had announced that it would sell the remaining 2% in the market. This leaves roughly 135m more shares to be sold

*PGSUS TI> Total PAX was up by 38% y/y to 2.2mn in October... On a segmental basis, domestic PAX was up by 6% y/y in October 2021 while international PAX was up by 115% y/y during the same period. International share in total ASK was up to 69% in October 2021 from 58% a year ago. Total load factor (LF) was up by 117bps y/y to 79.5% in October 2021 mainly due to 810bps increase in international load factor. Domestic load factor declined by 200bps y/y in October 2021. Although load factor in October 2021 is 79.5%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing PAX in October 2021 to seats of October 2019, we find a load factor of %71.3. We believe there is a m/m increase in load factor trend in October 2021. Currently, we expect 2021E ASK to be 32.9bn compared to 22.3bn in 2020 and 2021E load factor to be %77.9 compared to %80.2 in 2020. We also expect total PAX to increase to 20.6mn in 2021E from 14.7mn in 2020. Recall that total PAX of 14.7mn in 2020 was 52.2% below the total PAX of 30.8mn back in 2019. We believe it might take several years to catch 2019 PAX figures depending on the pace of easing in Covid-19 restrictions.

*BIMAS: will pay 2TL / share dividend today and the reference price will be TL 64.35

*ENKAI: Sinan Tara bought 100k shares in between TL12.63-12.95 range.

Weekly Agenda:

18 Nov: MPC One-week repo rate (Consensus 100bps cut to 15%)