Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Today we expect a slightly positive opening

  • Major topic remains to be recession in the markets and risk off mode continues

  • Increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia is another negative behind the weaknesses in global markets

  • In September foreign investors were net sellers for USD640mn

ATA Invest
11 October 2022
Published byATA Invest

Major topic remains to be recession in the markets and risk off mode continues. Increasing tension between Ukraine and Russia is another negative behind the weaknesses in global markets. Turkey on the other hand keeps decoupling where the foreign share in the market keep declining. In September foreign investors were net sellers for USD 640 mn; GARAN, SASA, ISGYO, TAVHL, CANTE were net bought and THYAO, TUPRS, KCHOL, SAHOL, AKBNK were net sold by foreigners. Eyes will be on US inflation data on Thursday. BIST 100 closes in green for the 7 days in a row. Today we expect a slightly positive opening in the market towards 3,600 resistance level. In case 3,600 will be broken up, 3,650 and 3,700 will be the new levels to be tested. Daily support levels lie at 3,550-3,530. TOASO is under selling pressure but unless 94,80 support will be broken down we will remain positive for TOASO. Aviation companies are relatively strong and are likely to continue outperforming prior 3Q announcements.

Company news:

*MPARK TI> bought back 30K shares at an average price of TL53.04 on 10 October 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 4.1mn at an average price of TL39.50.

*THYAO TI , PGSUS TI and TAVHL TI > Total passenger number in Turkey’s airports was up by 23% y/y in September 2022 <Slightly Positive for THYAO, PGSUS and TAVHL> Domestic pax in Turkey decreased by 2.3% y/y in September 2022 to 7.22mn which was at 83.7% of its 2019 level. However, international pax in Turkey increased by 46.1% y/y in September 2022 to 12.13mn which was at 99.4% of its 2019 level. Istanbul airport’s, main hub of Turkish Airlines, total pax increased by 58% y/y in September 2022. Considering 58% y/y increase in passenger vs. 33% y/y increase in ATM per day in the same period, as announced before DHMI data, THYAO’s load factor increased by 1,566bps y/y in September 2022. Total PAX in İstanbul airport was 6.43mn in September 2022 which was at 104% of its 2019 level. Recall that THYAO announced its September data last week before DHMI announcement. Total pax in Sabiha Gokcen, main hub of Pegasus, increased by 5.1% y/y in September 2022. Domestic pax decreased by 22.4% y/y in September 2022 to 1.35mn which was at 72.3% of its 2019 level. International pax increased by 54.7% y/y to 1.49mn in September 2022 which was at 116% of its 2019 level. Considering 5.1% y/y more passenger vs. 8% y/y less ATM per day in the same period, PGSUS’ load factor is likely to be flattish y/y in September.

Weekly Agenda:

Oct, 11: Aug foreign trade indices

Oct, 11: Aug current account balance

Oct, 12: Aug industrial production

Oct, 13: BRSA weekly banking sector data

Oct, 14 Sep Home sales

Oct, 14: Oct CBRT survey of participations