Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: Today eyes will be on US inflation data

  • The mood in global markets turned to positive

  • BIST 100 keep rising despite TL depreciation like we have witnessed back in 2021 autumn

  • We expect another positive opening in the market towards 2,500 resistance level and we expect 2,500 to be broken up

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
11 May 2022
Published by

The mood in global markets turned positive due to the declining Covid cases which eased the worries on growth. Today, eyes will be on US inflation data which will be announced in the afternoon. In the meantime, since the beginning of the week TL continues to weaken. BIST 100 keeps rising despite TL depreciation, as we witnessed back in the autumn of 2021. We expect another positive opening in the market towards the 2,500 resistance level and we expect 2,500 to be broken up. TL long companies and exporters will again be shining stars in this environment. We remain positive for EREGL and SISE.

Company news:

*VAKBN TI> Vakıfbank reported 1Q22 net income of TL3,002mn (+50% q/q and 300% y/y), in line with our and consensus estimate. The key highlights of 1Q22 were 1) Core banking revenues are up 5.4% q/q (208% y/y) to TL10.94bn driven by higher CPI linker income and lower swap costs but Vakıfbank’s ROA is much lower than peers 1.1% vs 3.2% for private peers in 1Q22 3) Net provisioning costs are up 17% y/y with higher than expected NPL inflows and the bank added TL228mn of free provisions, bringing the stock to TL2bn 4) The bank recorded ROAE of 18.9% vs 6.4% in 1Q21 and 15.9% in 4Q21, despite the improvement, it still lags largely behind private peers. Vakıfbank shares are up 25% year-to-date compared to a 31% increase in the BIST banking index and a 34% increase in BIST-100. Vakıfbank is trading at 4x 22E P/E and 0.6x 22E P/B, a 29% discount to its 5-year averages.

*ULKER TI> 1Q22 Review: Weaker than expected bottom line. Realised TL471mn net loss, worse than our estimate of TL47mn net loss and consensus estimate of TL157mn net loss. Deviation from our estimates could be attributed to higher than financial expenses and loss on financial assets. Topline growth of 111.4% was 9.0% above of our estimates. EBITDA margin of 21.1% was 114bps above our estimates and 100 bps above consensus. Encouraging 2022 guidance: (1) consolidated revenue guidance of TL22bn, implying 76% topline growth versus our est. of 45% and (2) EBITDA margin of 18.6% vs our est. of 19.9%. Ulker had c.€400mn short FX due to Onem Gıda acquisition. In our view, this acquisition had a dilutive impact on Ulker’s valuation considering the acquisition price. We believe that most of the negatives are priced into the share price but still lacks a catalyst. Ulker’s current mcap of US$377mn is the lowest level during the last 10 years, which is 80% below the 10-yr avg of US$1,700mn and 90% below the 10-yr max of US$3,000mn.

*PGSUS TI> 1Q22 Review: Lower than expected net loss…Pegasus posted €60mn net loss in 1Q22 which was 5% better than our estimate of €63mn net loss and 12% lower than consensus estimate of €68mn net loss. The company’s EBITDA was €32.6mn in 1Q22. Our estimate for 1Q22 EBITDA was €31.5mn and the consensus estimate was €30mn. The company’s net sales increased by 120% y/y to €270mn in 1Q22 which was 2% above our expectation of €263mn and 5% above Rasyonet consensus of €258mn. The deviation from our estimates was due to 107% higher international RASK

*MPARK TI> 1Q22 Earnings Review: Medicalpark posted TL170mn net income in 1Q22, higher than our estimate of TL83mn and consensus estimate of TL103mn… (not rated, positive) Medicalpark recorded TL170m0n net income, 105% higher than our estimate of TL83mn in 1Q22. Despite higher than expected financial expenses, higher than expected operating profit and lower than expected taxes led to higher than expected net income. The company’s consolidated revenue increased by 81% y/y to TL2.2bn thanks to strong growth in all segments in 1Q22. Thanks to increasing domestic patient numbers and average prices, domestic patient revenue increased by 66% y/y to TL1,771mn in 1Q22, 6% higher than our estimate of TL1,669mn. In segmental basis, the inpatient revenue increased by 57% y/y to TL325mn in 1Q22 while the outpatient revenue increased by 78% y/y to TL770mn in the same period. The foreign medical tourism revenue increased to TL325mn in 1Q22 from TL109mn in 1Q21 thanks to appreciation of FX, volume and price growth on the back of the normalization in international flights. Revenue from other ancillary business increased by 166% y/y to TL91mn in 1Q22 thanks to an increase in management consultancy revenues from university hospitals. The company’s EBITDA increased by 72% to TL502mn in 1Q22, higher than our estimate of TL454mn and consensus estimate of TL457mn. The company’s gross margin improved by 200bps y/y to 27.0% which was higher than our estimate of 26.5%. The company’s EBITDA margin declined by 108bps y/y to 23.0% due to the increasing utility expenses, increase in the marketing expenses related to FMT revenues, and personnel expenses in 1Q22. The company’s net debt declined by 4% q/q to TL1,984mn in 1Q22. 12M-Trailing Net Debt/EBITDA declined to 1.27x in 1Q22 from 1.53x in 4Q21. The company will hold a conference call today at 15.00 Istanbul time

*ODAS TI> 1Q22 Results: Odas posted TL388mn net income in 1Q22, 7% lower than the consensus estimates of TL417mn. Revenues of TL1,071mn was up by 286% y/y in 1Q22, 2% above the consensus estimate of TL1,053mn. Can power plant ran with 83% CUR in 1Q22 (1Q21: 75%). The company’s EBITDA increased by 660% y/y to TL564mn TL in 1Q22, 3% below the consensus estimate of TL579mn. Net debt decreased by 9% q/q to TL2,117mn in 1Q22. This implies 2.37x Net debt to EBITDA ratio declined to 2.37x in 1Q22 from 5.75x in 4Q21.

*DOAS TI> 1Q22 Review: Stronger than expected results...Dogus Otomotiv posted TL997mn net income which is 17% higher than our estimate of TL874mn and 10% higher than the consensus estimate of TL908mn in 1Q22. Despite the higher than financial expenses and tax expenses, higher than expected operating profit led to higher than expected net income in 1Q22. The company recorded TL1,200mn EBITDA which was 18% higher than our estimate of TL1,019mn and 10% higher than the consensus estimates of TL1,087mn in 1Q22. In 1Q22, EBITDA margin was 16.5% which is 247bps higher than our estimates (Consensus: 15.3%). Based on our 2022E estimates, DOAS is currently trading at 4.2x EV/EBITDA, implying a 26% discount to its 5-yr historic average

Weekly Agenda:

May 11: April Cash Budget Balance

May 13: March Industrial Production

May 16: March Current Account Balance