Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: This week we have 1Q GDP data coming

  • We have May CPI data on Friday. Consensus is 3.85%, while we estimate a 5.4% increase

  • We will see a worse print in June, for which we estimate annual inflation to jump to 85%

  • Positive global risk appetite will help us to test 2500 once again

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
30 May 2022
Published by

This week we have 1Q GDP data coming, for which consensus is 7.4% y/y growth, but more importantly we have May CPI data on Friday. The consensus is 3.85%, while we estimate a 5.4% increase, which will carry annual inflation to 77.6%.

But it is June inflation we fear more as Lira has depreciated more than 10% m/m and Brent is up 9%, so we will see a worse print in June, for which we estimate annual inflation to jump to 85%. This will carry year-to-date CPI to 48%, which means all of the wage increases have been totally erased, so there will be more pressure for the government to increase the min. wage and pensioner payments.

Positive global risk appetite will help us to test 2500 once again.

Company news:

* MPARK TI> bought back 150K shares at an average price of TL34.56 on 27 May 2022.

*SAHOL TI> bought back 280K shares at an average price of TL20.36 on 27 May 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 46.6mn at an average price of TL16.15.

Weekly Agenda:

May 31: April Trade Balance: Consensus -US$6.1bn( March -US$8.2bn)

May 31: 1Q GDP(Consensus 7.4% y/y)

June 2: BRSA Weekly banking Sector Data

June 3: May CPI (Consensus 3.85%, ATA 5.4%)