President Erdogan announced new tighter lockdown measure for the next 2 weeks in order to curb the increase in new Covid-19 cases. The number of daily cases have shot up from 7K/day to a pandemic high of 59K yesterday (averaging over 50K over the past week). The curfew hours have been tightened to 5am-19pm from 5am-21pm, 65+ & under 18 will not be able to use public transportation, all public gatherings( weddings etc) have been banned and intercity travel have also been restricted(except for air travel). We might even need tighter measures if these do not quickly decrease number of new cases.
Investors shrugged off higher than forecast rise in US inflation and US Treasuries rallied after a succesfull sale of 30-year bond auction. DXY is also off 0.6% on the week so we should see a bounce in EM assets as well as EMFX has also priced in this optimism. Banking shares and Koc Holding which have taken the biggest hit in the recent sell-off could benefit from the relief rally.
Presidents adviser Yigit Bulut said that CBT steps will be in line with market conditions
KCHOL: Koc Holding goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.59/share(3.2% dividend yield)
ALKIM: Alkim goes ex-dividend today, paying 0.52/share(3.1% dividend yield)
GLYHO: Chairman Mehmet Kutman 250k shares at TL 5 raising his stake to 24.73%.
NTHOL: the company bought back 300k shares within TL 4.97-5.00 bans and their stake raised to 39.81%
PGSUS: total PAX was down by 4% y/y in March 2021. On a segmental basis, domestic PAX was up by 7% y/y in Mar 2021 whereas international PAX declined by 22% y/y during the same period. International share in total ASK was down to 52% in Mar 2021 from 57% a year ago. Total load factor (LF) was down 274bps y/y to 77.5% in Mar 2021 due to 160bps and 500bps decline in domestic and international load factor, respectively. Although load factor in Mar 2021 is 77.5%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing PAX in Mar 2021 to seats of Mar 2019, we find a load factor of %47.1. Although m/m there is an improvement in load factors in Mar 2021, we believe there is no sign of recovery in terms of profitability of Pegasus. Currently, we expect 2021E ASK to be 31.6bn compared to 22,3bn in 2020 and 2021E load factor to be %76.1 compared to %80.2 in 2020. We also expect total PAX to increase to 19.2mn in 2021E from 14.7mn in 2020. Recall that total PAX of 14.7mn in 2020 was 52.2% below total PAX of 30.8mn back in 2019. We believe it might take several years to catch 2019 PAX figures depending on the pace of easing in Covid-19 restrictions. We might receive more clear signals starting by this spring regarding the travel trends.
THYAO : PAX Trends - Total PAX was down by 10% y/y in March Domestic PAX and direct international PAX were down by 15% and 21% y/y respectively whereas international transfer PAX was up by 9% in Mar 2021. Available seat km (ASK) is decreased by 16% y/y in Mar 2021. Total load factor was up 79bps y/y to 65.6% in Mar 2021 due to 129bps and 64bps y/y increase in domestic and international load factor, respectively. Although load factor in Mar 2021 is 65.6%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing revenue passenger km (RPK) in Mar 2021 to ASK of Mar 2019, we find a load factor of %32.9. Although there is a m/m improvement in load factors we believe there is no sign of recovery in terms of profitability of Turkish Airlines yet. Turkish Airlines stopped providing guidance due to Covid-19 at 1Q20, and no guidance was shared with 4Q20 results about 2021E. Currently we expect 2021E ASK to be 128.1bn compared to 75bn in 2020 and 2021E load factor to be %69 compared to %71 in 2020. We also expect total PAX to increase to 44mn in 2021E from 28mn in 2020. Recall that total PAX of 28mn in 2020 was 62.4% below total PAX of 74.2mn back in 2019. We believe it might take several years to catch 2019 PAX figures depending on the pace of easing in Covid-19 restrictions. We might receive more signals starting by this spring regarding the travel trends.
Weekly Macro Agenda:
April 15: CBRT policy rate decision( ATA 19%, consensus 19%)