Turkey

Turkey: New central bank governor stays course, for now; upgrade debt ratings

  • Governor Kavcioglu held the repo rate at 19% in his first meeting to reassure markets, but dovish shift still clear

  • Sell-off has paused, but will likely resume if rates are cut prematurely. Margin for error is extremely thin

  • We upgrade LCY debt to Hold and FX debt to Buy. Long-term outlook still grim, but risks now fully priced into eurobonds

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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").

The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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