Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Lira still without any direction

  • Turkish Lira remained flat against major currencies while CDS premium has declined slightly to 435bps

  • According to the latest CBRT data, non-residents have continued to seel their equity holdings at the BIST last week.

  • No life in banking stocks but names like Eregli' SOK, Arcelik' Kardemir are trading strong with strong 1Q expectations.

ATA Invest
9 April 2021
Published byATA Invest

Turkish Lira remained flat against major currencies while CDS premium has declined slightly to 435bps. According to the latest CBRT data, non-residents have continued to seel their equity holdings at the BIST last week, though with a lower momentum compared to previous weeks. This trend may continue until the delivery of the CBRT’s next policy decision, for which the consensus is a hold at 19%. The negative de-coupling when global markets are hovering around all time highs is not a good thing. If there is some correction due to a spike in US inflation etc, we will trade lower faster. No life in banking stocks but names like Eregli' SOK, Arcelik' Kardemir are trading strong with strong 1Q expectations.

Company news:

Enerjisa <ENJSA TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.95/share. (7.83% dividend yield)

Turk Sigorta <TURSG TI> goes ex-dividend today, paying TL0.42/share. (6.39% dividend yield)

Halkbank <HALKB TI > According to the press, the hearing will be held in NY court on Monday

Erdemir <EREGL TI> According to Fastmarkets,  EU will terminate the anti-subsidy subsidy investigation into HRC from Turkey without imposing duties.  (Positive)

This decision will not have significant impact on Turkish steel players in since there is a shortage of material in the market.

However, termination of the anti-subsidy investigation will increase the flexibility of Turkish producers’ exports into the EU.

All in all,  this is positive for Turkish flat steel producers such as Erdemir (EREGL)

Weekly Macro Agenda:

April 9: April Central Bank expectations survey