It was Fed day yesterday and Powell signaled faster rate hikes in 2022 to fight inflation, which was more hawkish. So more frequent and potentially larger rate hikes are likely starting from March.
Earnings season started with ARCLK yesterday. The result was broadly in line with ATA estimate and we expect the impressive topline growth to continue.
We start the day in red as futures are 1.8% down this morning. Unless 1,975 resistance would be broken up, BIST -100 can be under selling pressure.
Company news:
*ARCLK TI> 4Q21 Review: Impressive topline growth will continue… Arcelik realised TL790mn net income in 4Q21, broadly in line with our estimate of TL761mn and consensus of TL733mn. Topline was 0.6% above our estimates and excluding one-off gains EBITDA margin of 8.1% was in line with our estimates. The positive impact of one-off gain was offset by higher than expected depreciation expense and bottom line came broadly inline. 2022E Guidance: (1) “>60% consolidated revenue in 2022, driven by c.35% growth in Turkey (in TL) and c.20% growth international revenues (in FX). (2) EBITDA margin of c.10.5%. (3) NWC/Sales ratio of c.25%. Considering steep TL depreciation, high inflation and half-year inorganic growth prospects, we foresee 71% topline growth and 10.1% EBITDA margin for 2022E. Based on our estimates, Arcelik is currently trading at 4.3x 22E EV/EBITDA and 5.6x 22E P/E multiples, implying 39% and 54% discounts, respectively, compared to its global peers.
*ARCLK TI> bought back 460K shares at an average price of TL50.32 on 26 Jan 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 41.4mn at an average price of TL35.49.
*SAHOL TI> bought back 300K shares at an average price of TL15.12 on 26 Jan 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 17.6mn at an average price of TL14.30