Morning Note /
Global

Turkey: Global markets were weak and the risk appetite was low

  • We are starting a short week for BIST as there will be trading only today and tomorrow

  • US inflation data which will be out today is the main event of the day

  • We remain positive for aviation companies. Please recall TAVHL is our TOP pick

ATA Invest
13 July 2022
Published byATA Invest

We are starting a short week for BIST as there will be trading only today and tomorrow. While Turkish markets were closed, global markets were weak and the risk appetite was low due to recession worries which signals a sluggish opening for BIST. 2,450 2,465 and 2,480 are the short-term resistance levels. In case of selling pressures 2410-2,400 are the daily support levels. Declining oil prices are positive for macro picture.

US inflation data which will be out today is the main event of the day. We remain positive for aviation companies. Please recall TAVHL is our TOP pick.

Macro news:

Current account (C/A) deficit realised as US$6.47bn in May’22. (Bloomberg Cons: US$6.76bn) In May’22, there was a net outflow of US$4.3bn to portfolio investments (Apr’22: US$0.61bn). 12M Trailing Current Account Deficit realised as US$29.4bn in May’22. 12M Trailing Current Account Deficit/GDP ratio realised as 3.7% in May’22. We expect Current Account Deficit (C/A) and CAD/GDP to be US$48bn and 6.6%, respectively in 2022.

2022 year-end inflation expectations realized at 69.94% in Jul’22. 2022 year-end US$/TL rate expectation realised at 18.99 in Jul’22. 2022 GDP growth expectations realised at 3.6% in Jul’22. Current Account Balance expectations realised at -US$37.5bn in Jul’22.

Company news:

*FROTO TI> increased its export sales by 77% y/y to 72.8K units in 2Q22, 36% higher than our estimate of 53.4K units at the beginning of 2Q22 (positive). Please note that realised higher than expected export units sales pose an upside to our estimates.

* MPARK TI> bought back 9K shares at an average price of TL33.83 on 08 July 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 1.5mn at an average price of TL34.30.

*SAHOL TI> bought back 500K shares at an average price of TL18.65 on 8 July 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 56.0mn at an average price of TL16.71.

*TAVHL TI> Total PAX in TAV airports increased to 8.4mn in June, reaching 85.0% of its 2019 level... <Slightly Positive for TAVHL> Domestic PAX in Tav airports increased to 2.63mn in June which is 87.2% of its 2019 level. Considering domestic PAX in TAV was 2.5mn in May, there is a m/m increase in domestic PAX trend. International PAX increased to 5.8mn in June which is 84% of its 2019 level. Considering international PAX in Turkey was 4.09mn in May which was 74% of its 2019 level, there is a m/m rise in international PAX trend in Tav Airports. Domestic pax also increased to 433K in June which is 110% of its 2019 level in Almaty.

*TAVHL TI> Highlights of TAV Airports Jan-June’22 – Jan-June’21 Traffic Results: Total number of passengers served in 1H22 at TAV operated airports is 108% above 1H21. Like for like growth without Almaty was 129% in 1H22. International passengers served in 1H22 is 235% above 1H21 and 21% below 1H19. Total passengers served in 2Q22 is 127% above 2Q21 and 19% below 2Q19.

*THYAO TI> Total pax was up 90% y/y while surpassing June 2019 levels by 4%... Total pax was up by 90% y/y to 6.88mn in June 2022 which was at 104% of its 2019 level. Domestic pax was up by 30% y/y in June 2022 whereas direct international pax and int to int transfer pax were up 150% and 128% y/y, respectively, during the same period. Domestic and international pax were at 84% and 120% of its 2019 level, respectively.

Weekly Agenda:

July 13: May Unemployment rate

July 14: May Industrial production Index

July 15: National Holiday and the markets will be closed