Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Global markets in green – positive opening for Turkish equities

  • The sell off in the market was strong yesterday and Turkey CDS jumped back to 702 levels

  • BIST 100 should breach 2,430 level for further recovery in the market

  • MSCI announced the changes in MSCI indexes which will be effective on 31 May

Batuhan Ozsahin
ATA Invest
13 May 2022
Published by

Global markets are in green which signals a positive opening in Turkish equities. The sell off in the market was strong yesterday and Turkey CDS jumped back to 702 levels. The last time this level tested was back in the week when Russian – Ukrainian war started. BIST 100 should breach 2,430 level for further recovery in the market.

Company news:

MSCI announced the changes in MSCI indexes which will be effective on 31st of May,2022. Sabancı Holding <SAHOL TI> and Turk Hava Yolları <THYAO TI> will be added to MSCI Global Standard Indexes.

Alarko Holding <ALARK TI>, İş GYO <ISGYO TI>, Kızılbük GYO <KZBGY TI>, Penta <PENTA TI> and Vestel Beyaz Esya <VESBE TI> will be added to MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes while Anadolu Sigorta <ANSGR TI>, Bera Holding <BERA TI>, Sabancı Holding <SAHOL TI>, Tofaş <TOASO TI>, Turka Hava Yolları <THYAO TI> and Yapı Kredi Bankası <YKBNK TI> will be deleted from MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes.

*THYAO TI> Pax Trends - Total pax was up by 108% y/y to 4.99mn in April 2022... Domestic pax was up by 63% y/y in April 2022 whereas direct international pax and int to int transfer pax were up 143% and 133% y/y during the same period. Domestic and international pax were at 70% and 94% of its 2019 level, respectively. Available seat km (ASK) increased by 91% y/y in Apr 2022 to 15.4bn,which was at 106% of its 2019 level. Total load factor was up by 1,579bps y/y to 74.5% in April 2022 due to 1,013bps and 1,690bps y/y increase in domestic and international load factor, respectively. Although load factor in April 2022 is 74.5%, when we adjust this KPI for aircrafts on the ground by dividing revenue passenger km (RPK) in Apr 2022 to ASK of Apr 2019, we find a load factor of %79.4. Considering adjusted load factor was 70.4% in March 2022, we observe a m/m improvement in load factor trends. Turkish Airlines stopped providing guidance due to Covid-19 at 1Q20, and no guidance was shared with 4Q21 results about 2022E. International pax in 4M22 is 129% above 4M21. but 36% below 4M19. Domestic pax 4M22 was 66% higher then 4M21 but still 22% below 4M19.

*SAHOL TI> bought back 500K shares at an average price of TL19.08 on 12 May 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 45.4mn at an average price of TL16.06. 

*ARCLK TI> bought back 1,445K shares at an average price of TL69.88 on 12 May 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 65.4mn at an average price of TL43.72.

*SISE TI> bought back 3,434k shares at an average price of TL19.41 on 12 May 2022. Since February, 26 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 70.3mn at an average price of TL12.53.

Weekly Agenda:

May 13: March Industrial Production

May 16: March Current Account Balance