Global markets are rising signalling a positive opening for BIST 100. Turkish equities has been very volatile lately (moved within 1,949-2,013 band yesterday) in the absence of foreign investors. Banks were weak despite strong 4Q results. 1,975 1,985 and 2,000 are the resistance levels for the day.
PI increased by 11.10% m/m in Jan’22 (Bloomberg consensus: +10.95%).
CPI increased by 11.10% m/m to 48.69% y/y in Jan’22.
PPI increased by 93.53% y/y in Jan’22
Weight of sub-indices changes every year in January and used through the whole year. With the highest share in the calculation (%25.32), Food and Non-Alcoholic beverages increased by 10.90% m/m (+55.61% y/y) in Jan’21.
Core inflation (excluding alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, energy and gold, B) increased by 42.66% y/y in Jan’22 (Dec’21: 34.89% y/y)
With the Inflation Report published in Jan’22, Central Bank of Turkey increased its 2022 inflation target is 23.2% (ATA Est.: 28.8% y/y).
*YKBNK TI > Yapi Kredi reported 4Q21 net income (bank only) of TL3,558mn (+10% q/q and -365% y/y), 2% lowe than our and 6% higher consensus estimate. The key highlights of 4Q21 were 1) Core revenues were up 26% q/q to TL8.1bn driven by higher CPI linker income and well contained swap costs (core revenues 36% q/q for Garanti & +33% for Akbank) 2) ECL(excluding fully hedged currency impact) jumped 538% q/q to TL1,849mn. YKB’s net profit rose an impressive 110% y/y in 2021, with its ROTE improving to 19.6% from 12% in 2020.
*TOASO TI > Tofas recorded TL1,217mn net income, 11% higher than our estimate of TL1,099mn and 27% higher than consensus estimate of TL955mn in 4Q21. Despite higher than expected net other operating expense& financial expense, TL1.132mn higher than expected EBIT led to better than expected bottom line. The company reported TL2,732mn EBITDA, 80% higher than our estimate of TL1,520mn and 90% higher than consensus estimate of TL1,438mn. EBITDA margin of 26.5% was 1,119bps higher than our estimate of 15.3%. Tofas recorded all-time high EBITDA margin in 4Q21, supported by steep FX appreciation against TL. Based on our 2022E estimates, the company trades at 6.3x EV/EBITDA and 8.7x P/E compared to its 5-year average multiples of 5.6x and 6.4x, respectively.
*SISE TI> acquired refractory manufacturer Refel for EUR22mn. SISE acquired the Italian company Refel, one of the world's leading refractory materials manufacturers. Refractory materials are used in the construction of glass melting furnaces and is crucial for the commissioning of furnace investments in accordance with planned schedules. With this strategic acquisition, SISE aims to secure its refractory supply and avert supply chain-based risks for its new investment plans. Deal will be made in fully cash.
*SAHOL TI> bought back 710K shares at an average price of TL15.13 on 3 Feb 2022. Since 09 Nov 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 20.6mn at an average price of TL14.43.
*ARCLK TI> bought back 690K shares at an average price of TL51.65 on 3 Feb 2022. Since 02 July 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 44.5mn at an average price of TL36.60.
*INDES TI> :INDEKS bought back 101k shares within TL 9.03-9.21 range.
Feb 4: Jan REER