Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Fed day

  • Turkey is trading totally on its own dynamics with Lira depreciation moving all hard currency linked stocks

  • The banks joined the party yesterday as well as the laggards of the last month’s rally

  • With Lira at 14.58 this morning, we cannot be strong supporters of a high and clean conviction bank call

Turkey: Fed day
ATA Invest
15 December 2021
Published byATA Invest

It is FED day but Turkey is trading totally on its own dynamics with Lira depreciation moving all hard currency linked stocks. The banks joined the party yesterday as well as the laggards of the last month’s rally. With Lira at 14.58 this morning, we can not be strong supporters a high and clean conviction bank call but can be suitable as momentum rally punt trades. Kardemir,Sise, Dogan Holding( sizeable long FX position), Eregli,Tüpras, Arcelik, Ford Otosan all benefit from the weaker Lira but this can’t go forever as the structural damage that weaker Lira will create bigger problems and a big slowdown in the economy n the coming months.

Macro news:

Home sales increased by 59.0% y/y to 178,814 units in Nov’21. New home sales increased by 52.0% y/y to 55,706 units, whereas second hand sales declined by 62.4% y/y to 123,108 units in Nov’21. Total home sales declined by 9.2% to 1,265,353 units in 11M21. Istanbul was again the city in which the most home sales occurred with 31,706 units in Nov’21 (Istanbul’s share in total home sales: 17.7%).

 Company news:

*BIMAS TI> bought back 92K shares at an average price of TL79.75 on 14 Dec 2021. Since 6 Dec 2021, the total number of shares bought back reached 447K at an average price of TL77.00.

 *PGSUS TI> Total PAX was up by 51% y/y to 2.0mn in November... On a segmental basis, domestic PAX was up by 16% y/y in November 2021 whereas international PAX was up by 131% y/y during the same period. International share in total ASK was up to 67% in November 2021 from 53% a year ago. Total load factor (LF) was up by 619bps y/y to 80.9% in November 2021 due to 670bps and 530bps increases in domestic and international load factor. Although load factor in November 2021 is 80.9%, when we adjust this KPI for low utilization of by dividing PAX in November 2021 to seats of November 2019, we find a load factor of %71.0. We believe there is a slight m/m decline in load factor trend in November 2021. Currently, we expect 2021E ASK to be 32.9bn compared to 22.3bn in 2020 and 2021E load factor to be %77.9 compared to %80.2 in 2020. We also expect total PAX to increase to 20.6mn in 2021E from 14.7mn in 2020. Recall that total PAX of 14.7mn in 2020 was 52.2% below total PAX of 30.8mn back in 2019.

 *ISCTR/ISGYO/TSKB: Isbank bought 4 mn shares of ISGYO within TL 2,65-2,67 band raising their stake to 50,93. Isbank also bought 6.5 mn shares of TSKB within TL 1,69-1,71 band raising their stake to 47,47.

 *ENKAI: Enka insaat signed a contract with Yandex for construction of new Yandex headquarters in Moscow.

 *ATATP: As of Jan, 3rd the stock will be traded in BIST Stars Market.

Weekly Agenda:

Dec 15: November Central government Balance Dec 16: MPC one week repo rate decision( Consensus 100 bps cut to 14%)