Morning Note /
Turkey

Turkey: Eyes will be on US PPI data today

  • Global markets keep rising thanks to the relief in China-US relations

  • Turkish equities join the rally and breathless buying continues

  • In case of a weakness the support levels lie at 4,550-4,520

ATA Invest
15 November 2022
Published byATA Invest

Global markets keep rising thanks to the relief in China-US relations. Eyes will be on US PPI data today. In case of a better than expected data, risk appetite is likely to continue in global markets. Turkish equities join the rally and breathless buying continues. More than 45 shares were limit up yesterday in BIST. On the other hand, foreign share in the market keep declining and reached historical low of 29,72% level. Today BIST 100 may test 4,590-4,600 resistance levels today. In case of a weakness the support levels lie at 4,550-4,520. TUPRS FROTO TOASO PGSUS THYAO are the stocks we like technically today.

Company news:

*PETKM TI> announced that major maintenance has been completed and planned outages in this scope has ended as expected. (neutral

*Turkish Autos: October 2022: Exports increased by 5.0% y/y to 91.4K units…On a segmental basis, passenger car (PC) exports declined by 6.4% y/y to 50.8K units in Oct’22, whereas LCV exports increased 23.4% y/y to 37.6K units during the same period. HCV exports were up by 27.3% y/y to 3.0K units in October’22. Tofas’ export volume increased by 28.5% y/y to 13.6K units in October 2022 whereas Ford Otosan’s export sales volume increased by 16.5% y/y to 28.8K units during the same period. Between 2015-2021, Tofas 10M export units were on average 83% of its full year exports. If we make an estimate based on the assumption that 10M exports consititute 83% of total exports in 2022E, we calculate 121K export sales units for Tofas which is 6% higher than its lower band of export guidance and 3% lower than its upper band of export guidance of 115-125K (ATA Est.: 117K). Between 2015-2021, Ford Otosan 10M export units were on average 81% of its total year export sales units. If we assume the same trend for 2022E, we calculate 307K units export volume for Ford Otosan which is 1% higher than its lower band of export guidance and 1% lower than its upper band of export guidance of 305-310K (ATA Est.: 317K). After 3Q22 results, both Tofas and Ford Otosan had revised their export guidance for 2022E. Tofas had revised up its exports sales volume guidance to 115K-125K from 110K-125K, implying 2-11% y/y increase for 2022E (ATA Est: 117K). Ford Otosan had revised down its export sales volume guidance to 305K-310K from 330K-340K, implying 6-7% y/y increase in 2022E (ATA Est: 317K). Total motor vehicle production in Turkey increased by 6.7% y/y to 114.8K in October 2022, driven by 20.9% and 19.8% y/y increase in LCV and HCV production to 46.6K and 5.9K units, respectively. PC production was down by 2.8% y/y to 62.4K in October 2022. Domestic HCV sales increased by 16.7% y/y to 3.9K units in October 2022.

*MPARK TI> bought back 22K shares at an average price of TL72.12 on 14 November 2022. Since 25 May 2022, the total number of shares bought back reached 6.4mn at an average price of TL47.92.

Weekly Agenda:

Nov, 15: CBRT Budget Balance

Nov, 16: October Home sales

Nov, 17: BRSA Weekly Banking sector data

Nov, 18: October CBRT Survet of participants