Macro Analysis /

Turkey: CBT raises inflation forecasts to 14.1% at end-2021, 7.8% at end-2022

    29 July 2021
    • CBT maintains expectation for 5.0% mid-term inflation target to be achieved at end-2023
    • Upward revision of end-2021 forecast mostly reflects cost-side factors
    • CBT expects inflation to be volatile in near term, to fall markedly in Q4
    • CBT governor Kavcioglu implies forecast for lira appreciation with support of CA surplus in H2
    • Kavcioglu says policy rate to be kept above inflation, hints rate hikes not on agenda while cuts possible in Q4, in our view